Beleaguered Bush to spell out plans for Iraqi sovereignty

US president George Bush is spelling out details tonight of the handover of power to an Iraqi government, in an attempt to calm fears about rising casualties and spreading violence.

Bush will reveal his plans hours after the United States and Britain introduce a long-awaited United Nations resolution on restoring Iraqi sovereignty on June 30.

The UN Security Council is expected to discuss the draft resolution behind closed doors this afternoon.

The 15 council ambassadors have held three informal sessions on key elements expected to be in the UN resolution – the handover of power from the US and British occupation authorities to an interim Iraqi government; the role of the multinational force currently led by the United States; and the role of the United Nations.

The resolution is also expected to address the question of Iraq’s oil revenue and other legal issues.

Bush is promising to cede political power to an interim government of Iraqis, which he insists will put the country firmly on a path to democracy.

In his speech tonight, Bush will lay out details of the transfer at a time when his approval ratings are at the lowest level of his presidency and just six months before he faces the verdict of American voters on a second term.

Of all the difficulties that plague the Bush administration’s efforts in Iraq, experts say the biggest one is how to turn over political power to Iraqis without plunging their country into chaos.

Some experts say Bush needs to act boldly, perhaps increasing the number of troops in Iraq and moving up the date for elections scheduled for next year.

“The problem is we have failed to win fast enough,” said Tom Donnelly, a national defence and security expert at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative research organisation.

“The belief that people used to have that George Bush was the right kind of guy to lead the country in time of war is slipping” and “the need to do something pretty significant is pretty great”, Donnelly said.

Bush, in the speech at the Army War College at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania, will describe “what steps we are taking and how we intend to get to 2005 and the elections” in Iraq, spokeswoman Suzy DeFrancis said.

It is the first in a series of speeches in which Bush will detail the transfer of political control in Iraq.

“I think we need to hear from the president a comprehensive strategy for success. I think that’s one thing the American people feel has been lacking,” Senator Evan Bayh told ABC’s This Week programme

While some politicians advocated an increase in the US military presence in Iraq to smooth the transition, the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee said he wanted to see a military transfer come soon.

“It’s time to put some weight on the shoulders of the Iraqi military,” Congressman Duncan Hunter told NBC’s Meet The Press.

The chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee chided the president for failing to offer concrete plans earlier. Sen Richard Lugar said he wanted to hear tonight “precisely what is going to happen … as opposed to a generalisation”.

The handover will be centre stage against a backdrop of bad news for Bush.

A recent poll by the Gallup organisation showed the president’s approval rating at 46%. All surveys show him in a tight race with Senator John Kerry, tipped to be Democratic candidate in November elections.

A week ago, Newsweek’s poll rated Bush’s job approval at 42%, the lowest of his presidency. Public opinion specialists have attributed the plummet to the frustrations of Iraq.

“We have a lot of trouble. Everybody knows that,” said Senator Hillary Clinton on Fox News Sunday.

“And, you know, my hope is that we can work our way out of the trouble we’re in, and much of it depends upon the choices that are made starting on June 30.”

Abuse of inmates at a US-run prison outside Baghdad has overshadowed the administration’s message of a free and democratic Iraq and has provoked outrage in the Arab world.

Emergence of an interim government will follow recent polling data that showed 82% of Iraqis disapproved of the US occupation force. Despite that resentment, the White House maintains a great majority of Iraqis want coalition forces in place to secure the country.

The administration has already decided on the central theme of its plan, which willdeclare that the June 30 handover will be substantive. Some critics suggest it will be merely symbolic, their scepticism based on the failure to have named an interim government this close to the deadline.

Lakhdar Brahimi, an envoy from the United Nations, is to come up with proposals for a prime minister, president, two vice presidents and the heads of 26 ministries.

In a sign of progress, US secretary of state Colin Powell said, 11 ministries had already been turned over to Iraq cabinet ministers.