Aids slows down world population growth

Fewer births and more deaths from Aids are helping slow world population growth, the US Census Bureau said in a report.

The bureau forecast a world population of about 9.1 billion people by 2050, a near 50% increase from the 6.2 billion in 2002. However, the growth rate is slowing significantly.

The global population grew 1.2% from 2001 to 2002, or about 74 million people, but growth will slow to 0.42% by 2050. That is far below the peak growth of 2.2% between 1963 and 1964.

The projections are generally in line with separate forecasts from the United Nations and private researchers. The 2050 world projection is slightly lower than the 9.3 billion forecast in a previous bureau report on the topic in 1998.

Bureau officials warned that such forecasts are based on two factors that could change: fertility rates in developing countries and the Aids epidemic.

Generally, in the United States and Europe, women are having fewer children, while fertility rates remain high in India, parts of Africa and some other developing countries, said Carl Haub, a demographer with the Population Reference Bureau.

The wild card is how prevalent contraceptive use and family planning becomes in these countries, Haub said. As an example, he cited India, where the population is expected to rise more than 50% to 1.6 billion in 2050, surpassing China as the most populous country.