Slim lead for Turkish Cypriot opposition

The Turkish Cypriot opposition took a slim lead today in crucial parliamentary elections that could shape the future of divided Cyprus and help define Turkey’s relations with the European Union, early election results showed.

Opposition parties support a UN-backed plan to reunify the island, which becomes a member of the EU in May whether or not it remains divided. Hardline Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash argues that the plan would lead to domination by the richer Greek Cypriot south of the island.

Early election results showed votes almost evenly split between two opposition parties and two hardline parties.

With votes from 390 of the 554 ballot boxes counted, the pro-EU Republican Turkish Party and the Peace and Democracy Movement together had 49.5% of the vote. The two parties have vowed to form an alliance if they win.

Meanwhile, the National Unity Party and the Democrat Party had 45% of the vote, according to the High Elections Board. Both parties oppose the UN-sponsored reunification plan and are currently serving in a coalition government.

The rest of the votes were spread among three smaller parties, which are not expected to break the vote threshold needed to enter parliament.

Seats in the 50-member parliament are divided according to a complicated formula that takes into account the population of the district casting the votes. It is not clear that a party that wins a tight majority in the elections would gain a majority of seats in parliament.

“The people seem to be divided into camps,” said Serdar Denktash, son of Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash and leader of the Democrat Party.

EU members have said that Turkey must help reunite the island before it can realise its own membership aspirations.

With some 40,000 troops deployed in the north, Turkey could technically be occupying EU soil after Cyprus enters the bloc, they warn.

Turkey’s failure to get a date could lead the country to become alienated from the West at a time when close relations are crucial. Turkey is a key US partner in the war against terrorism and was targeted last month by suicide bombers who killed 62 people in Istanbul.

Vedat Oktunc said he feared Greek Cypriot domination and voted for the pro-Denktash National Unity Party of Dervis Eroglu, who serves as prime minister.

“A win (by pro-Denktash parties) will provide protection,” he said.

Some 140,000 people were eligible to vote. About half of the 200,000 people on the Turkish Cypriot side of the island are Turkish settlers who moved to Cyprus after the island’s division in 1974. They are expected to largely oppose reunification.

The opposition has pledged to remove Denktash as chief negotiator in peace talks with Greek Cypriots.

Denktash is not up for re-election until 2005.

The island has been split between a Greek Cypriot south and a Turkish Cypriot north since Turkish troops invaded in 1974 amid intercommunal fighting that left some 3,000 dead and a short-lived coup by supporters of union with Greece.

A strong vote for the opposition would make it easier for Turkish leaders to press to reunite the island.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke of the need to solve the Cyprus problem after coming to power last year. The powerful military, however, considers Cyprus to be of strategic importance and favours Denktash.