'Shock and wave' strikes fail to force surrender

Almost a week into the war, and America’s “shock and awe” air campaign has yet to achieve its broader aim: a quick surrender by the Iraqi regime that would avert all-out war for control of Baghdad.

Round-the-clock air strikes in and around the capital have damaged or destroyed numerous government buildings and military compounds, and they have stifled some portion of Iraqi air defences.

But have they collapsed the Iraqis’ will to fight?

There has been no outward sign thus far of wavering by Saddam or his loyalists, although Pentagon officials yesterday repeated their assertion that the regime was losing control and suffering from confusion.

Also absent so far are mass surrenders of troops on the battlefield.

So while the Iraqi regime may have been stunned at the intensity of air strikes, and US officials remain confident of victory, there are growing signs that Saddam’s forces will make their stand in Baghdad.

Yesterday, a group of US Army Apache helicopters armed with Hellfire tank-destroying missiles engaged in the first battles with the Medina armoured division of the Iraqi Republican Guard south of Baghdad.

In fierce fighting, one Apache was lost and a number of others took ground fire.

US and British forces are also facing resistance in southern Iraq, including around Basra, the second-largest city.

US Gen Tommy Franks, the commander running the war, never counted on a quick Iraqi collapse and is proceeding with coordinated air and ground attacks across the breadth and depth of the country.

Even so, the initial hope was that full-scale war could be avoided if some in Saddam’s inner circle turned on him after concluding that his demise was at hand.

Instead, senior Iraqi officials have made a series of public appearances to declare their defiance.

Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz held a news conference yesterday at a hotel in central Baghdad.

He said the Iraqi leadership is in “good shape” and that Saddam is in ”full control” of the country.

But at the Pentagon yesterday, Maj Gen Stanley McChrystal, vice director of operations for the US Joint Staff, asserted that some of the Iraqi military leaders’ orders are being ignored.

“We are seeing evidence that orders that are being issued are not being executed in many cases,” he said. “They may be received, they may not be executed. And that, to me, indicates a weakening of their command-and-coercion system.”

He said US and British air forces have so far dropped about 2,000 precision-guided bombs and missiles. That is far more than in the opening days of the 1991 Gulf War but fewer than some had projected for this war.

It remains possible that the regime could collapse before US Army and Marine Corps ground forces now approaching the outskirts of Baghdad fully engage the Republican Guard forces protecting the capital.

If not, Franks will have to execute that portion of his battle plan which carries perhaps the greatest risk – including the possibility of facing Iraqi chemical attacks.

William Arkin, a private analyst and expert on the Iraqi military, said the Bush administration failed to manage public expectations of how long it would take to achieve victory.

“There was an expectation of instant victory,” he said. “Now that that hasn’t occurred it has given the impression for the Iraqis and the Iraqi regime that they are doing better than they actually are, and for Americans that we are doing worse than we actually are. Both impressions are wrong.”

Arkin said that during the first three days of the war the main air strikes were against targets in Baghdad that US war planners could carefully chose in advance and minimise the risk of civilian casualties.

“Now we are getting into war on the fly,” he said.