Spy satellites see increased activity at N-Korean plant

Heightened activity detected by spy satellites around a North Korean nuclear plant has intelligence analysts wondering whether the government is rushing to produce nuclear weapons - or just bluffing.

Throughout January, spy satellites have detected covered trucks apparently taking on cargo at the nuclear storage facility at Yongbyon, where spent nuclear fuel rods are stored, US officials said.

When processed, enough plutonium could be extracted from the rods to make four or five nuclear weapons. The UN nuclear watchdog has said there are 8,000 rods.

White House spokesman Ari Fleischer would not comment on the intelligence, but warned the North Korean government against taking “another provocative step” that “further isolates North Korea from the international community”.

Immersed in planning for a possible war against Iraq, the Bush administration has played down Korean developments in recent months, even as North Korea continued to ratchet up the tension.

There is a broadening consensus in the Bush administration that the reclusive communist regime is moving quickly down the path toward developing nuclear weapons, one senior defence official said. At the same time, another said that because North Koreans know they are being watched, Pyongyang is also suspected of manoeuvring to force Americans to the bargaining table.

“The fact that they’ve done this in broad daylight, as it were, suggests to me that this is part of the brinkmanship with the United States,” said Kurt Campbell, an Asia specialist at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies and a former policy adviser at the Pentagon.

“I think they’re playing with fire,” he said. “Even though the administration has feigned nonchalance, the reality is that tampering with plutonium that could be shipped or smuggled is extraordinarily serious, and, I would argue, crosses a very clear and bright red line.”

Officials say they do not really know what North Korea is up to at the long-mothballed plant north of Pyongyang, the North Korean capital.

It is possible that the trucks moving there over recent weeks are loading spent fuel rods, either to be stored elsewhere or in preparation for processing, one official said.

More people have been working at the complex, including grading roads, signs that the regime in Pyongyang is resuming operations.

The activity is not particularly unexpected, since the Koreans withdrew from a global anti-nuclear pact and said they would restart the reactor at Yongbyon to generate electricity.

But restarting it would be another ominous step in a crisis that has been escalating since October.

While there is agreement in the intelligence community that North Korea is gearing up at Yongbyon, there is disagreement not only about the ultimate goal but also on how far along they have moved, officials said.

Some intelligence officials believe the North could restart a reactor by the end of February.

On the stored spent rods, analysts say, it could take a couple of months to remove the plutonium and weeks or months to turn the plutonium into bombs.