Musharraf may put his popularity to the test

Pakistan’s military ruler, who is seeking to stay in power for five more years, is likely hold a referendum in October that could throw him out of office.

General Pervez Musharraf, who seized power in a bloodless coup in 1999, has been holding top-level meetings to muster support for a ballot reaffirming his rule, said Mohammed Ali Durrani of the Nation Party.

He met Musharraf on Thursday.

General Rashid Quereshi, spokesman for the military-led government, said Musharraf has not yet made a final decision.

‘‘It’s the politicians who expressed support to the president in case of a referendum,’’ he said.

However, A senior government official said Musharraf discussed the issue with his top military commanders this week.

There is precedent in Pakistan for such a move. Former military ruler Gen. Mohammed Zia-ul Haq, who ruled the country for 11 years before he was killed in a plane crash in 1988, held a referendum seeking to extend his mandate in 1984.

Analysts have long been expecting Musharraf to make a move to retain power.

The Supreme Court two years ago ordered him to hold elections to restore a democratic government by October 2002.

However, if he bypasses the election, Musharraf would have to amend the constitution, which requires parliament chose a president.

Pakistan has been ruled by the army for almost half of its turbulent history. Democratic institutions and political parties remain weak and successive elected governments have been thrown out of power on charges of corruption and misrule.

For Musharraf, the timing is good for seeking a popular vote. He faces weak and divided political parties. Two former prime ministers Sharif and Benazir Bhutto - are in exile and have been discredited because of corruption charges.

The United States and other Western nations that shunned Musharraf after the coup later embraced him for his support of the war against terrorism in neighbouring Afghanistan, despite the vehement opposition by the country’s militant Islamic groups.