From hero to villain - Japanese PM on the rack

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s hold on power looked increasingly precarious today as his public support went into freefall after the sacking of his foreign minister and an emboldened opposition submitted a no-confidence motion.

Koizumi was forced into the defensive in his first major policy speech of the year, opening his remarks with an allusion to newspaper polls that showed the public deserting him in droves since he abruptly dismissed Makiko Tanaka as his top diplomat last week.

‘‘With support for my government falling there have been fears that I might backtrack on reform, but my determination to push through reforms will not loosen,’’ he said. The tepid applause contrasted with the usual uproarious welcome he has enjoyed in parliament.

Observers have long said that the key to Koizumi’s chances of defeating entrenched interests within his own party is popularity.

Now, with support ratings down from 70% to below 50% in one poll, the self-styled ‘‘lionheart’’ who promised to overhaul the status quo is looking increasingly like a paper tiger, analysts say.

‘‘As an administration the Koizumi administration may last a while longer, but the reforms are over,’’ said Shigenori Okazaki, a political analyst with UBS Warburg.

‘‘Makiko Tanaka was one of the engines of his high public support, but you can’t fly on only one engine,’’ Okazaki said. He added that her dismissal indicates that anti-reform forces in Koizumi’s Liberal Democratic Party may now be calling the shots.

Now free from the constraints of the Cabinet, Tanaka wasted no time today in transforming herself from Koizumi ally into critic.

‘‘In order to realise the prime minister’s pledges made in the speech, there first is a need for political reform,’’ Tanaka said after Koizumi’s speech.

Even the leader of the biggest of Koizumi’s three-member ruling coalition criticized the prime minister’s handling of the Tanaka affair.

As if to underline his deepening isolation, Koizumi ended Monday’s speech by quoting a poem the late Emperor Hirohito composed months after Japan’s defeat in the Second World War: ‘‘Undaunted stands the pine tree in mounting snowdrifts.’’

The image was ostensibly meant to encourage Japan to be resilient in tough economic times, but it came across more as a reminder of the lonely political storm Koizumi himself faces in the months to come.