Turmoil forecast as Montenegro narrowly backs secession

Montenegro’s pro-independence movement has won a slim majority in the general election, but fell short of the mandate for secession it had sought and threw the Yugoslav republic into turmoil, analysts said today.

Although unofficial returns from yesterday’s election gave a majority of seats in parliament to supporters of independence, the margin of victory was not what Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic had hoped for in his drive to break away from Serbia and create a new Balkan nation.

‘‘The results reveal a deep and dangerous split within Montenegro. They indicate that the agony of Yugoslavia will continue,’’ said political analyst Bratislav Grubacic.

He said Djukanovic risked provoking violence and even war if he pushed ahead with plans for a referendum on independence this summer.

With 65% of the vote counted, Djukanovic’s Victory Belongs to Montenegro coalition led with 43.3%, the state electoral commission said. The anti-independence Together for Yugoslavia trailed with 39.6%.

‘‘We have won,’’ Djukanovic declared early as he addressed his cheering supporters. ‘‘We made a huge step toward independent Montenegro,’’ he said as the crowd chanted ‘‘We want our country.’’

Spokesman Miodrag Vukovic said Djukanovic would form a new governing coalition with the separatist-minded Liberal Party, which won 9 percent of the vote, and that together they would push for a referendum on independence, perhaps as early as June.

Djukanovic said the unofficial results suggested that supporters of independence would take a combined 44 seats in the 77 seat parliament 35 seats for his faction, six seats for the liberals and three seats for small ethnic Albanian parties which also support independence.

But the results emboldened the opposition and were sure to disappoint Djukanovic, who had expected a stronger mandate for independence. Because he must now form a new government with other independence-minded parties, he will find it difficult to cancel the referendum even if he decides it could be dangerous to try.

Opponents of secession said they considered it a victory that the pro-independence bloc had failed to muster a two-thirds majority in parliament, which under the constitution would have made it much easier to break away. They vowed to block further efforts to declare independence.

‘‘The result which we accomplished guarantees our remaining in Yugoslavia,’’ said Vuksan Simonovic, a ‘‘Together for Yugoslavia’’ leader, addressing thousands of cheering supporters. Some fired guns into the air to celebrate.