Russia on collision course with EU and US over Crimea

Russia is on a collision course with the EU and the US, with the referendum in Crimea on Sunday threatening to escalate the situation onto another level.

Ukraine has focused its military along its eastern border with Russia where, according to the Ukrainian defence minister Igor Tenyukh, there are about 220,000 taking part in exercises.

Kiev and EU sources fear that the region is Moscow’s next target while the Baltic states are increasingly fearful that they too could be in Putin’s sights.

Diplomatic efforts with the US and individual EU countries desperately trying to get Moscow to pull back and open a dialogue with Kiev appear to be foundering completely.

International pressure is also building with statements from the OSCE and the G7 countries warning that Sunday’s referendum is illegitimate and that any attempt to annex Crimea on foot of it would be illegal and would violate a range of international treaties.

But reports from Sevastopol, the capital of the Crimea region, say there will be just two options on the ballot paper, to merge with Russia or become an autonomous region with links to Kiev.

There is no option to remain part of Ukraine.

EU officials in Moscow, Kiev and Brussels have been working on a list of possible names for asset freeze and visa bans. The question is whether the list will be confined to those in Crimea who have been partly responsible for the current situation, or whether others in Moscow will also be included.

The understanding is that the top Russian politicians such as president Vladimir Putin and his senior colleagues will not be included. “The EU has to retain some leverage, so it has to be a graduated approach that allows us to increase the level,” said an EU official.

The events of the weekend are likely to determine the extent of the list which could also include Russian oligarchs. The official made clear that either of the referendum outcomes (annexation or independence) would not be accepted. “We will continue to say it is illegitimate and we won’t recognise it.”

If the foreign ministers agree a list on Monday, as they are expected to, then it would become operational from Tuesday or Wednesday. The 18 names of those implicated in the killings in Kiev will also be reviewed and the list extended. The next EU Russia summit, due to take place in Moscow later this year would also be suspended as have preparations for the G7.

Visa liberalisation and plans for a new EU-Russia agreement have been suspended as the first of the three-phase action over the Ukraine situation. EU leaders meeting in Brussels next Thursday and Friday are expected to discuss the third phase: economic measures against Russia.

Some countries, including Spain, are wary of taking steps such as banning Russian goods because they fear the effect of Moscow taking similar actions. EU countries have huge assets in Russia and own Russian debt. Russian MP and lawyer Andrey Klishas was quoted by the RIA Novosti news agency as saying that they are preparing to seize foreign owned property and assets including those of foreign companies.

Ukraine prime minister

Arseniy Yatsenyuk is in Washington for talks and reminded the US and Britain once again that they guaranteed his country’s defence when they agreed to give up their Soviet-era

nuclear weapons if they were threatened with nuclear attack.