Kim’s sudden death was the scenario nobody wanted

IT WAS the scenario strategists from Beijing to Washington feared.

Kim Jong Il of North Korea dies suddenly, before the isolated regime can complete a transfer of power to his young son and rejoin disarmament talks with the US.

With news on Monday of Kim’s death, the impoverished country known to be pursuing nuclear weapons plunged further into uncertainty, raising risks for the region.

Neighbours worry that political manoeuvring in Pyongyang could spill over into missile launches or other aggression, though analysts give such acts a low probability.

Tens of thousands of US troops are stationed in South Korea and Japan. China wants to keep its socialist neighbour stable — and avoid a flood of refugees — but also free from American and South Korean influence.

“If you asked experts what could happen to bring the regime down, it would be the sudden death of Kim Jong Il. That has happened now,” said Victor Cha, former US National Security Council director for Asian affairs under George Bush and now a senior adviser at US think-tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

“We’re potentially at a watershed moment for the region.”

Pyongyang is likely to slow decision-making, upending efforts to restart nuclear disarmament talks just as the US and North Korea seemed on the verge of resuming them.

After months of talks, Washington was poised to announce a donation of food aid this week, followed by an agreement with Pyongyang to suspend uranium enrichment.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the US was still looking for better relations with the North Korean people despite the “evolving situation” there.

Tentative reforms to build up its listless economy and better the lives of North Koreans — three million of whom, or more than 10% of the population, are underfed — may also be put on hold.

Though the elder Kim had a stroke in 2008, hastening plans to find a successor, his health had seemingly improved, allowing him to travel more frequently, resume a more public role and prepare for a longer power transition like the two-decade-long one he enjoyed under his father.

One test will be a long-planned celebration in April for the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim’s father and North Korean founder Kim Il Sung — an event meant to lend credibility to the bloodline succession.