Fears death could stall nuclear disarmament talks

THE death of Kim Jong Il could halt talks aimed at getting the country to give up its nuclear weapons.

Kim Jong Un, the supreme leader’s untested third son and successor — believed to be in his 20s — is unlikely to risk any step that could be construed as weakness as he seeks to consolidate control.

There are even fears he could seek to demonstrate his leadership credentials through martial and provocative actions, such as a military attack on South Korea or a nuclear test.

South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported that the North conducted at least one short-range missile test just hours after announcing the death of its leader.

But despite rising trade and cooperation with chief foreign backer China, the nation’s future is in doubt.

“The most likely scenario for regime collapse has been the sudden death of Kim (Jong Il). We are now in that scenario,” said Victor Cha, a former US National Security Council director for Asian affairs.

Pyongyang pulled out of six-nation aid-for-disarmament talks in 2009.

Shortly after the North announced its withdrawal, it conducted its second nuclear test, following its first in 2006. In 2010, the North upped the ante further.

In moves that some experts speculated was linked to Kim Jong Un’s rise to power, a South Korean submarine was sunk and a South Korean island came under artillery fire.

And underscoring the North’s intent to develop its nuclear deterrent further, it unveiled a uranium enrichment facility that gave it a second way of generating fissile material to put in an atom bomb.

Only in July 2011, when North-South tensions had eased, did the US revive direct negotiations with Pyongyang, a prelude to a possible resumption of the six-nation talks, that also include China, Japan, Russia and South Korea.

The US hopes talks could help slow North Korea’s weapons’ development.

Washington has held two rounds of exploratory talks and a third round appeared imminent. The US also appears ready to resume badly needed food aid. US officials discussed the monitoring of such aid with North Korean officials in Beijing last week.

But with Kim Jong Il’s death, negotiations with the US — which retains about 28,000 troops across the border in South Korea — are likely to be put on hold, as the North enters months of intense mourning for the Dear Leader, and rising uncertainty.