European airlines on ash alert after volcano erupts

ASH from an erupting Icelandic volcano could reach northern Scotland by tomorrow and parts of Britain, France and Spain by Thursday or Friday if the eruption continues at the same intensity, airlines were warned yesterday.

Met Éireann said there was no short-term risk to Ireland but that it is monitoring the situation.

The warning is based on the latest five-day weather forecasts, but is being treated cautiously because of uncertainties over the way the volcano will behave and interact with the weather.

Iceland’s airports were closed yesterday due to fears that ash from the Grimsvotn volcano, which began erupting on Saturday, could threaten the safety of passenger aircraft.

With winds currently blowing the ash northwards, authorities said there was little risk of any further disruption to European or transatlantic airspace over the next 24 hours.

But as low-pressure weather systems move into Europe and Scandinavia, there are concerns that northwesterly winds capable of dispersing ash toward the rest of Europe will pick up.

Airlines were told to brace for the possible further spread of ash later in the week during a conference call with weather experts and officials responsible for European airspace.

Ash could reach Scotland by midday tomorrow and other parts of Britain, western France and northern Spain by Thursday or Friday if nothing changes, weather officials said.

A spokeswoman for Eurocontrol, which co-ordinates air traffic flows, declined to comment, referring to the latest published updates which ruled out major problems in the next 24 hours. The new warning assumes the volcano will continue to spew ash at the same rate and there is no change in forecasts over a period of five days, both of which are uncertain.

Saturday’s disruption took place amid mobile, low-pressure air in the north Atlantic whose movement is not easy to predict. That contrasts with a stable high-pressure weather pattern during a crisis last year when a pervasive and slow-moving cloud of ash forced a six-day shutdown of European airspace, stranded tens of thousands of people and damaging economies.

The eruption was far larger than last year’s eruption at the Eyjafjallajokull volcano 80 miles (130 kilometres) away, but scientists said it was unlikely to have the same global impact as that one, which left 10 million travellers stranded around the world.

Scientists said there were already signs that the latest eruption was tapering off.

“The intensity of the eruption has decreased markedly overnight,” Matthew Roberts of the Icelandic Meteorological Office told the BBC, saying the ash plume had fallen to about 6 miles (10km) high.

Gudmundsson said the duration of the eruption would probably be short.

“In two or three days, the worst should be over,” he said.

* (Reuters)