Egypt’s revolt will reverberate across the Middle East

The revolution on the Nile raises serious questions about the stability of other Arab regimes, reports Brian Murphy from Dubai

LESS than a month after the world watched Tunisia celebrate the collapse of the country’s strong-arm ruler, the scenes in central Cairo yesterday offered an even more potent display of the newfound power of the Arab street: fist-pumping crowds cheering the end of President Hosni Mubarak.

The downfall of Mubarak — one of the mainstays of Middle East politics and Western policies in the region for nearly three decades — marks another history-shaping moment for the Arab world from a country seen by many as its political and cultural crucible.

What began as a tentative cry against an entrenched regime in late January grew into a popular mutiny that forced Mubarak to flee Cairo and step down in just a few hours.

But the revolution on the Nile — which reached its climax 32 years to the day after the fall of the government of the US-backed shah of Iran — raises questions about the long-term stability of other Western-allied regimes across the region and could significantly recalibrate America’s policy playbook from the Mediterranean to the Gulf.

There is no guarantee the reform wave will wash over another country soon. An attempt to stir Egypt-inspired protests in Syria earlier this month was snuffed out by security forces. The reverberations, however, are already being felt.

In Saudi Arabia — the other traditional cornerstone of US interests in the Mideast — a group of opposition activists said they asked the nation’s king for the right to form a political party in a rare challenge to the absolute power of the ruling dynasty.

“You know well that big political developments and attention to freedom and human rights is currently happening in the Islamic world,” the activist said in a letter to King Abdullah, who was one of Mubarak’s staunchest supporters up until the end.

Jordan’s new prime minister, Marouf Bakhit, promised to continue political reforms demanded by protesters who forced King Abdullah II to reshuffle the cabinet. Last week, Yemen’s President Ali Abdullah Saleh — a key US ally in office for more than three decades — bowed to pressure and announced he would not seek re-election in 2013 and would not try to pass power to his son.

“Egypt is going to have a big, big impact around the region,” said Salman Sheik, director of The Brookings Doha Centre in Qatar.

“It is — as it always has been — a bellwether for what happens elsewhere. It’s wrong, though, to get into a count about what country could be next.”

It could hit next in the strategic Gulf kingdom of Bahrain, where opposition groups are calling for street rallies on Monday.

Bahrain is home to the US Navy’s 5th Fleet and the most politically divided in the Gulf. Majority Shiites have long alleged they face second-class status under the Sunni rulers.

Yesterday — just hours before Mubarak stepped down — Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa granted each Bahraini family the equivalent of nearly $2,700 (€1,993) in an apparent bid to calm tensions.

In Kuwait, the other Gulf nation with serious political opposition, outlawed any “gatherings, rallies or marches” after Friday prayers, said the state news agency KUNA.

“Everybody should put the interests of the homeland above all considerations,” said the statement by Kuwait, which is an important way station for the US military withdrawal from Iraq.

It also showed how close any unrest in the region comes to US military and political bulwarks — seen as a critical front-line alignment against Iran. But even Iran’s main Mideast ally, Syria, has been showing some concessions to the reformist fervour.

This week, Facebook and YouTube were available for the first time in three years amid signs Damascus may be lifting its ban on the popular social networking websites that have helped energise and organise protests.

Speaking in Michigan earlier this week, US President Barack Obama said the world is “witnessing history unfold” in Egypt.

But he also was quick to extend a hand of friendship to the “new generation” who led the uprising, which includes the well-organised Muslim Brotherhood group that could steer the new leadership in Egypt away from its tight bonds with Washington.

Tunisia offers a cautionary tale for what could be ahead in Egypt or elsewhere.

Tunisia’s interim President Fouad Mebazaa was given decree-making powers to speed reforms and try to quell lingering unrest following the ouster of former dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali on January 14.

But a prominent Tunisian dissident said he worries the “people’s revolution” is at risk of collapsing into chaos and possibly leading to calls for the return of the deposed president.

“All this is extremely dangerous for the country,” said Moncef Marzouki.

Just seconds after Mubarak’s departure, the new tools of political activism — Facebook and Twitter — were buzzing with encouragement to maintain the momentum for change across the Middle East.

A Twitter message seemed to sum it up: “Dude, Egyptians invented writing on the wall,” it said. “You really should learn to read it.”