Election result reflects accuracy of polls

Whether whites supported Barack Obama or not, they don’t seem to have lied to pollsters about it.

Obama’s election triumph on Tuesday presented no evidence of the so-called Bradley effect, in which whites who oppose a black politician mislead pollsters about whom they will vote for. Instead, national and state pre-election polls were generally accurate in reflecting voters’ preferences in the presidential contest.

“I certainly hope this drives a stake through the heart of that demon,” Charles Franklin, a University of Wisconsin political scientist and polling authority, said of the Bradley effect.

The phenomenon is named after former Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who in 1982 lost the race for California governor after leading in the polls.

There were similar contests over the following decade in which black candidates facing white opponents had comfortable leads in polls, only to lose or narrowly win the elections. Critics have said such turnabouts might have been largely the product of poor polling. Others have concluded that some whites, nervous about appearing to harbour anti-black feelings, in fact misled pollsters up through the early 1990s but that such behaviour has faded over time.

Obama, who will become the first African-American president, defeated Republican John McCain by 52% to 46%.

If the Bradley effect were a factor, pre-election polls should have consistently overstated Obama’s share of the vote, or understated McCain’s. Instead, most did a solid job of previewing how the vote would go, both nationally and in crucial states.

Shortly before Election Day, an NBC News-Wall Street Journal survey showed Obama ahead 51% to 43% among likely voters.

The Gallup Poll showed a 53% to 42% Obama lead, while CBS News had Obama up 51% to 42%.

Such accuracy was a relief to pollsters rattled last winter when widespread projections of an Obama victory in the New Hampshire primary were upended after Hillary Clinton won narrowly.

None of this means race was not a factor on Tuesday.

Whites nationally preferred McCain by 12 percentage points, while 95% of blacks backed Obama, according to exit polls.

Analysts said any reluctance to support Obama because he is black may have been overwhelmed by a desire to support the candidate people thought would fix the economy. They also said the Bradley effect has faded as Americans have become used to blacks winning local elections and as the 1990s’ intense focus on crime and welfare has ebbed.