It’s the final countdown for Clinton and Obama
For six weeks pundits have watched the bitter battle push and pull its way through scandal and gaffe only to settle back at an uneasy equilibrium, with no clear victor in sight.
Senator Barack Obama seems to have survived the backlash from Jeremiah Wright, his controversial former pastor. Wright’s soaring sermons included statements that 9/11 was America’s “chicken’s coming home to roost” and “God damn America”. Rather than throw the pastor under the bus, Obama tackled the race issue head on in what is considered the only historic speech of this campaign.
Whether he survives calling the economically challenged Pennsylvanians “bitter” and saying they “cling to guns and religion” will be seen after Tuesday. Certainly Senator Hillary Clinton has battered him for what she calls his “demeaning” sentiment.
But Clinton is no altar girl either. She confessed to faking claims that she darted through sniper fire in Bosnia. Then she scrambled with the scandal that her chief strategist was meeting with the Colombians about the free trade agreement that she opposes.
On Tuesday the game is handed over to the voters. Both campaigns have had weeks to prepare, organise and advertise. Heavy hitters have weighed in on both sides: Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendall for Clinton, and Senator Bob Casey for Obama, who is funnelling Obama-appeal to the state’s 52% Catholic population and its blue-collar workers who are part of Clinton’s base.
The contest here, once firmly in Clinton’s corner, has tightened to within a few percentage points. Like Ohio, this state has large industrial cities surrounded by economically distressed, mainly white, less educated rural communities. This would bode well for Clinton if Obama wasn’t pumping an estimated $3.6 million (€2.28m) into TV advertising compared to her $1.3m (€822,751), and if 300,000 voters hadn’t registered to vote since November. This is a plus for him, since he attracts new people.
But little else has changed. During the Philadelphia debate during the week, Clinton continued to score on policy while Obama scored on ideology. He showed himself to be an idealist, seeing Washington and the world as he wants and believes it can be. Clinton showed the battle scars of experience and her skill at playing the Washington political game.
But with 85% of Pennsylvanians believing the country is on the wrong track, changing the game may be more appealing than playing it well.
Determining the winner is a foggy prospect with both candidates playing the expectations odds. The state has been Clinton territory since the 90s, but she is being outspent 3-to-1, so even winning by a small margin will be touted as a victory. By the same token, Obama is giving her the “home game” advantage, so even a marginal loss for him will be flaunted as a victory.
No matter the victor in the popular vote, Obama will preserve his near-insurmountable lead with the pledged delegates. Neither can clinch the 2,025 delegates needed to win the nomination, so it will fall to the superdelegates — whose single vote equals 10,000 popular votes.
The superdelegates could either side with the regular voters and back Obama, but if Clinton can plead that she can deliver the blue and swing states in November, she could entice the superdelegates to her camp.
John McCain would like nothing more than to see a pitched battle ensue between Democrats who believe Obama was legitimately selected by the voters, and the party insiders who think they have the right to make the final decision. With grassroots organisations springing up nationwide to prevent this happening, it’s unlikely the superdelegates will risk a rift between the party and the punters.
This is not good news for the New York senator.
The real significance of the Keystone State may not be seen until November. It is a stronghold of white, blue-collar voters, who voted Republican since the late 70s and swung to the Democrats in the 90s by a narrow margin.
The Catholic majority returned to the Republican Party in 2004 and many see McCain as their ideal candidate, since he shares their pro-life and immigration reform views. His team will be campaigning hard for their vote in November. The presumptive Republican nominee already leads both Democratic contenders in the polls here, which could swing the state and maybe even the general election for the Republicans.
Certainly the protracted knock- down, drag-out fight between the Democrats is only arming him for the real fight later this year. If recent damage cannot be undone, the winner in Pennsylvania on Tuesday and beyond could very well be the aging senator from Arizona.
