Two down, 48 states to go

Karen McCarthy reports from New Hampshire on the fallout from the presidential primary and the likely direction Republican and Democrat candidates will take as the race to the White House gathers pace

Barack Obama receives a hug from his wife Michelle after voting ended in the New Hampshire primary. His surprise defeat gives Hillary Clinton a major boost and leaves Obama with a challenge to convince voters he can win the US presidential election next November. Picture: Stephan Savoia/AP

SENATOR Barack Obama bolted out the gate from the moment the first voting booth opened for the 17 registered voters of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire on Tuesday. But after a bitter fight, Senator Hillary Clinton surged from behind and beat him to the finish line stunning pundits who had predicted an easy win for Mr Obama.

Senator John McCain shot off the blocks in the Republican race, resurrecting his campaign and making former governor Mitt Romney a two-time loser. As Mr McCain’s supporters cheered, “Mac is back,” Mayor Rudy Giuliani barely made it out of the stalls and Mike Huckabee began to look like a one-state wonder.

Candidates battled for the state’s 40% independent voters who may not only win them the primary, they may swing the state towards either party in the November presidential elections.

Nineteen of 28 winners here have gone on to win the party nomination, making the state a good barometer of the nation’s temperature.

The concept of “change” dominated back-to-back debates in the lead-up and the question of “who is most qualified to be president” was turned on its head. Campaigns scrambled to challenge Mr Obama’s promise of change that seemed to be a finger on the pulse of the nation.

During endless speeches and four hours of debates, squabbles over who advocates change, who has made the most change, who is most qualified to make real change prompted Governor Bill Richardson to ask: “What happened to experience. Is experience now a leper?”

The war of words was far sharper among the Republicans, with Mr Romney being assailed by Mr McCain for changing only one thing — his mind. The other candidates attacked “Millionaire Mitt” for negative campaigning.

Ms Clinton came out aggressively — citing her own experience when attempting to reform health care during her husband’s tenure — and pointed out the reality of the push back effect from powerful corporations who will resist any change.

“Words are not action,” she said of Mr Obama rhetoric. “As beautifully presented and passionately felt as they are, they are not action. What we’ve got to do is translate talk into action and feeling into reality. I have a long record of doing that.”

Ms Clinton made perhaps her most public display of emotion at an intimate round table discussion the day before the election, which resulted in some voters finding her more likeable.

“I have so many opportunities from this country,” she said quietly. “I just don’t want to see us fall backwards.”

As the day progressed she rolled the big guns onto the battlefield. Bill Clinton launched a public attack on the Illinois senator citing his inconsistencies and calling his campaign, “the biggest fairytale I’ve ever seen.”

Meanwhile large boisterous crowds crammed into halls to hear Mr Obama speak. His rousing speeches made Bill Clinton’s era seem like ancient history and his own White House dream seem to be the dawn of a new day for America. Some voters compared him to John F. Kennedy or Martin Luther King Jr. Others saw him as presenting an opportunity to “throw the bums out and start over.”

“If we cast aside our fear and cast aside our cynicism and we stand up for what we genuinely believe,” said Mr Obama to a cheering crowd, “this is our moment, this is our time, you can feel it, you can see it.”

The independent voters rallied round to him but were overwhelmed by the record number of women and older voters who came out in support of Ms Clinton. By the time the polls closed she had taken on her husband’s mantle as the new “comeback kid.”

As the race now edges through Michigan, South Carolina and Florida on its way to February 5 when half the country votes, it will become a complex, high-velocity game.

Presidential hopefuls will move through industrial towns, moderate states and the Deep South where the focus will shift from ideology and political reform to the brass tacks of economics, health care and education.

How a shift from political ideology to bread and butter issues will affect Mr Obama has yet to be seen. Black voters don’t want their vote to be wasted on a non-viable candidate.

Ms Clinton is already revamping her campaign. She needs to convince the independent voters rallying around Mr Obama that their exuberant call for change is being directed at a candidate with style and no substance.

On the Republican front, Mr Romney’s defeat by Mr McCain shows his ability to connect with voters is not improving. Mr McCain has regained his warrior status. His New Hampshire success may compensate for his lack of resources and help him stay the course. Mr Giuliani is gambling on a late entry to the game in Florida.

Candidates won’t trip over each other in small towns after Florida. Mr Huckabee and Mr Edwards will probably focus on the southern states. Mr Romney, Mr Giuliani and Ms Clinton may vie for the moderate states of California, New England, New York and New Jersey. Mr McCain and Mr Richardson will focus on Arizona, Colorado, Montana and New Mexico.