Bush looks to economy for boost
Republicans are battling to keep control of Congress. But polls and analysts in both parties increasingly suggest Democrats will capture the House and possibly the Senate on Election Day, November 7.
White House political director Sara Taylor said the economy was a key issue in about two dozen House of Representatives races.
Democrats need a 15-seat pickup to regain the House and a gain of six seats to reclaim the Senate.
Mr Bush, who gets higher marks on the economy than the Iraq war, is spending two days this week trying to convince voters Republicans are the best stewards of matters affecting the wallet.
White House advisers said Mr Bush was not trying to deflect attention from the deteriorating situation in Iraq and would continue to talk about Iraq and the war on terrorism as the congressional and gubernatorial elections approached.
Bush advisers said they thought he should get more credit for recent positive economic news. Overall, the US economy grew at a 2.6% pace from April through June, compared with 5.6% over the first three months of the year, the strongest spurt in two-and-a-half years.
America’s voters care deeply about financial issues, with 88% of likely voters saying the economy is an important issue — on par with the percentage of people who view the situation in Iraq and terrorism as crucial matters, according to an Associated Press-Ipsos poll.
The poll this month found 37% of likely voters said they approved of Bush’s handling of Iraq overall, and 42% approved of his handling of the economy.
But everything could change overnight for Bush, who has governed for most of the past six years with a Republican Congress and with little support from Democrats.
The loss of either house could hasten his descent into a lame-duck presidency.
“If he loses one house here, President Bush will enter the last two years very wounded,” said David Gergen, a former White House adviser who served in the Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Clinton administrations.
Democratic victories could block Bush’s remaining agenda and usher in intense partisan bickering over nearly every measure to come before Congress.
The president and his chief political strategist Karl Rove last week expressed renewed confidence in retaining House and Senate; others are not so upbeat.
“All of our numbers look pretty bad and there’s no question that there’s a jet stream in our face,” said House Majority Leader John Boehner.
Furthermore, some of Mr Bush’s disputes are likely to be with fellow Republicans as they seek to find a new standard-bearer for 2008 — and distance themselves from an unpopular war, the unpopular president who waged it, and congressional scandals that include inappropriate emails to house pages from ex-Congressman Mark Foley.
Already, Republicans are showing divisions on Iraq policy. Fresh scepticism has come from Senate Armed Services Chairman John Warner of Virginia, Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison and former Secretary of State James Baker, a longtime Bush family loyalist.
If Republicans lose their majorities, it will be harder for Mr Bush to hold together already splintering party cohesion on Iraq.
Mr Bush has been quoted by journalist Bob Woodward as saying, “I’ll stay in Iraq even if the only support I have left is from my wife and my dog.” A Democratic takeover and Republican defections could make that day seem closer.
Mr Bush, in his own get-out-the-vote appeal, told Republicans: “The consequences of not succeeding this fall are dire for our agenda for America.”
He even suggested last week that insurgents in Iraq were stepping up their violence in a bid to influence the elections.
Stephen Wayne, a professor of government at Georgetown University, said a loss of house or senate would cripple Mr Bush domestically — but might actually give him more room to find a way out of Iraq.
“Were he to choose to moderate the course in Iraq, the Democrats would say, ‘I told you so’ and the Republicans would say ‘Thank you,’” said Mr Wayne.
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