Week of plots, lies and conspiracy theories

THIS week has seen a remarkable convulsion within Britain’s Labour Party, culminating in the confirmation by Tony Blair that he will quit within a year.

Mr Blair made no secret that the announcement had been forced out of him at a time not of his choosing.

But the question being asked in Westminster was whether this week’s developments are the result of a plot by supporters of Gordon Brown designed to speed his entry into 10 Downing Street or whether they simply reflect widespread anxiety among Labour MPs about the party’s electoral future.

With crucial elections to the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly and local councils due on May 3 next year, some MPs are now convinced that removing Mr Blair is the only way to restore the party’s fortunes in the polls.

Unease has been growing on the Labour backbenches for months, as MPs unhappy with the PM’s policies on Iraq, the Middle East, civil liberties and immigration began to feel their seats threatened from a resurgent Conservative Party under David Cameron.

Mr Cameron, who has been visiting India — a trip which has allowed him to look above the squabbling of his rivals, cultivate world leaders, court ethnic minorities and praise the legacy of Mahatma Ghandi — appears to be the main beneficiary of Labour’s woes.

But it was Mr Blair himself who triggered the dramatic escalation of tension seen this week, with an interview in The Times on his return from holiday in which he refused to set a timetable for his departure and told MPs to stop “obsessing” about the issue.

Some saw Mr Blair’s comments as arrogant and out-of-touch. Others worried he was trying to buy time to allow an alternative Blairite candidate for the succession to emerge, or to tie the chancellor’s hands when he does take office.

But the challenge to Mr Blair’s position came this week not from people close to Mr Brown, but from formerly loyal supporters of the Prime Minister like Chris Bryant and Sion Simon, who were named in reports as the organisers of a letter signed by 15 Labour MPs urging him to stand down.

Matters came to a head on Wednesday, with the resignation of junior minister Tom Watson along with seven ministerial aides who had signed the letter.

Suspicion that Mr Brown may have been behind the letter was fuelled when his close ally Doug Henderson began doing media interviews from his home within minutes of the announcement of Mr Watson’s resignation.

And it was heightened by the chancellor’s failure to make a public declaration of support for the Prime Minister, angering many MPs who felt this was the only way to bring a halt to the crisis.