Israel after Sharon, the latest uncertainty tormenting Middle East

THE list of uncertainties bedeviling the Middle East has grown longer and deeper: Palestinian factions fighting each other in the streets, the relentless insurgency in Iraq, the rising political clout of Islamist militants in Egypt, political uncertainty in Syria and Lebanon.

Now there's another: the direction Israel will take with Prime Minister Ariel Sharon unlikely to return to power.

"This makes a complicated picture even harder to sort out," said Ehsan Ahrari, a political analyst based in Alexandria, Virginia.

Mr Sharon himself had sensed the shifts. The former general once gave Israeli forces full rein to battle the Palestinian uprising.

But then he surprised the world by implementing a peace process on his terms: sealing off Palestinian lands and forcing Israeli settlers from the Gaza Strip. It gave 1.3 million Palestinians a degree of self-rule, but also amplified the power struggles opened by the death of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat in 2004.

On Wednesday, rebellious Palestinian gangs rammed stolen bulldozers into the Gaza-Egyptian border wall and stormed buildings to protest the arrest of a leader of the Fatah Party, which is now led by Arafat's embattled successor, Mahmoud Abbas. Other troubles loom ahead for Fatah.

Palestinian parliamentary elections, planned for January 25, are expected to hand a strong showing to the militant group Hamas, whose followers have carried out suicide bombings against Israeli targets in the past but have proclaimed a temporary truce.

Hamas's turn to the ballot box mirrors moves by Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, the once ultra-radical movement that took about 20% of parliament seats in elections last year.

In Iraq, meanwhile, Shi'ite Muslim parties, heavily influenced by conservative clerics, are expected to control the new parliament after the results from last month's voting are officially announced.

It will be more than a stunning reversal from the decades of repression under Saddam Hussein's regime led by Iraq's minority Sunnis. A Shiite-dominated parliament will be forced to seek ways to confront a Sunni-led insurgency showing no signs of weakening.

Iran's nuclear showdown with the West remains the highest priority. In Washington, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned on Thursday that Iran is running out of time to avoid being brought before the UN Security Council for possible sanctions.

Her comments followed sharp criticism by the chief UN nuclear watchdog, Mohamed ElBaradei, about Iran's decision to resume test work on some equipment used in uranium enrichment a possible pathway to nuclear arms.

In 1981, Israeli warplanes destroyed an Iraqi nuclear reactor and some Israeli politicians have openly discussed military options if Iran appears to be moving toward nuclear arms. The rhetoric has grown sharper since Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called for Israel to be "wiped off the map."

Mr Sharon's newly formed party, Kadima, or Forward, is essentially built around his personal aura. The race is suddenly thrown open with two distinct poles: hardline Likud Party leader Benjamin Netanyahu and Labour Party chairman Amir Peretz. But any outcome has to grapple with one inescapable issue: whether to move forward with Mr Sharon's vision of the peace process.