Race is on among factions to fill political vacuum

THE suddenness of Saddam Hussein’s fall has opened a power vacuum in Iraq, a power struggle in Washington and another transatlantic tug-of-war.

The race is on among Iraqi factions to fill the political vacuum, with the US Defence Department giving its favourite exile, Ahmad Chalabi of the Iraqi National Congress (INC), a head start over his many rivals and detractors. Faced with an urgent need to stop lawlessness, forestall acts of revenge, restore public services and hold together a diverse ethnic and sectarian population, the US and Britain are keen to find Iraqis who can share responsibility. But splintered Iraqi political groups are treating each other with intense suspicion as each rushes to create facts on the ground in this crucial period. The INC has established a foothold in central Iraq, Kurdish fighters have captured Kirkuk, while the biggest Shi’ite movement, the Tehran-based Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, has distanced itself from US occupation.

Chalabi said on Wednesday that opposition leaders from outside and inside the country would meet senior US officials in the southern town of Nassiriya as early as tomorrow to prepare for an interim administration.

Hours after US Vice President Dick Cheney confirmed that meeting, his office and the State Department backtracked, saying it would take place later when security permitted. An INC aide said yesterday the talks had been postponed to next Tuesday.

Arab leaders were quick to say Iraqis alone should pick their future rulers, and the US and Britain should leave Iraq as soon as possible. European governments insisted the UN must play a central role in setting up an Iraqi government, but Secretary of State Colin Powell made clear Washington had no intention of giving the world body any such political say. The battle of Washington centres on the role of Chalabi, a former banker and scion of a wealthy Shi’ite merchant family, and the exiles, versus local community and religious leaders.

The Pentagon flew Chalabi and 700 supporters to Nassiriya on Saturday with US special forces, two journalists and a video camera, to secure a base and a media presence in Iraq.

By Wednesday, he was irking his sponsors by complaining they were not providing food, water and medicines fast enough to Iraqi civilians, drawing a rebuke from Washington. US sources say the State Department and the Central Intelligence Agency questioned Chalabi’s suitability and popular support after more than 40 years in exile and a failed attempt to organise an anti-Saddam uprising in 1996. The former head of US Central Command, General Anthony Zinni, once branded him one of the “silk-suited, Rolex-wearing guys in London.” The US plans to run Iraq for at least six months through the authority of military commander General Tommy Franks. A civil administration headed by retired General Jay Garner will report to him, helped by an interim Iraqi authority.

The INC plays down the role of Garner’s Office for Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance (ORHA), provisionally based in Kuwait, as subordinate to Iraqis. The task of ensuring an ethnic and sectarian balance will be daunting in a country that is roughly 55% Shi’ite, 20% Sunni Arab and 25% Kurdish, with small minorities of Assyrians and Turkmens. Middle East analysts say Shi’ite ascendancy in Iraq would alarm Gulf Arab States such as Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, which have volatile Shi’ite minorities and fear the influence of non-Arab Iran, a Shi’ite Islamic republic. Turkey has made clear it will not tolerate neither Kurdish independence in northern Iraq nor permanent Kurdish control of the cities of Kirkuk and Mosul with their oil wealth. Whatever the outcome, finding a stable government will be a daunting task.