US pull-out from birthplace of Islam will not deter militants

THE suicide bombings in Riyadh sent a harsh message to Saudi rulers that an American troop withdrawal from Islam’s birthplace has not mollified militants bent on destabilising the world’s biggest oil exporter.

Analysts said that Monday night’s attacks, blamed by Saudi and US officials on Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaida network, highlight the pressures the Saudi royal family faces in maintaining a domestically unpopular alliance with the US.

At the same time, the kingdom’s ageing leadership is grappling with daunting social and economic problems that could sharpen the Islamist militant challenge.

“The Saudis won’t be let off the hook,” said Yezid Sayigh of the International Institute of Strategic Studies. “There are long-term challenges for the Saudi leadership and for the US-Saudi relationship that won’t go away.”

Bin Laden has demanded the eviction of American “infidel” troops from the land that houses Islam’s two holiest shrines ever since they were deployed during the 1990-91 Gulf crisis.

In theory, the troop pullout announced two weeks ago should relieve strains in US-Saudi relations that have grown since the September 11 attacks on the US.

However, Neil Partrick, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit in London, said the latest blasts showed that Islamist radicals would not be satisfied by the departure of US troops.

“At bottom there is a desire to destabilise the kingdom and overthrow the Al Saud (ruling family),” he added.

Daniel Neep, of London’s Royal United Services Institute, said Saudi Arabia had been unusually ready to acknowledge that al-Qaida might be behind the Riyadh bombings.

In the past, the Saudis have been liable to deny that Saudi-born bin Laden has any followers in the kingdom. They have blamed a series of bomb attacks on Westerners in recent years as part of an alcohol-related turf war among foreigners.

“The Saudis can’t afford to rest on their laurels,” Mr Neep said, adding the US troop presence was only one of a long list of grievances voiced by al-Qaida, which denounces the alliance with the US and accuses the royal family of being unworthy to guard the holy places in Mecca and Medina.

He said Saudi Arabia would remain under US pressure to reform, especially after the American military success in Iraq, but the latest bombings, by emphasising the common threat to the two countries, might “presage a rapprochement” with Washington.

Mr Partrick said President George W Bush and other US officials had acknowledged improved Saudi cooperation since September 11, especially in efforts to close down financial channels between the kingdom and al-Qaida.

The bombings underscored the enormous domestic constraints on Saudi Arabia to contribute more than verbal support to Powell’s efforts to garner broad Arab support for the road map to peace between Israel and the Palestinians, Partrick said.

As Powell’s visit to Egypt showed, many Arabs are reluctant to show great enthusiasm for US diplomacy unless Washington puts real pressure on Israel as well as the Palestinians.

Mr Sayigh said Saudi Arabia, unlike Egypt, had only recently had to face systematic challenges that called into question the foundations of the ruling family’s approach.

“There is deep socio-economic malaise. It could conceivably lead to political conflict,” he said.