'We have to take Osama at his word'
An audio tape said to be of Osama bin Laden's top aide urging attacks on British and US diplomatic missions and businesses was played on Gulf satellite TV station al-Jazeera yesterday.
Qatar based Al-Jazeera said the voice on the tape was bin Laden's deputy Ayman al-Zawahri who called on Muslims to imitate the September 11 attacks on the US.
"We have to take Osama at his word," said terror expert Zachary Abuza of the Simmons College in Boston, referring to an audiotape released by the elusive extremist suspected in the September 11, 2001, suicide attacks on New York and Washington.
"There will be several more attacks around the world," said Abuza.
Few would dispute that. But where? "The most eligible for liberation are Jordan, Morocco, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Yemen," bin Laden said in a February tape.
The recording also urged Muslims to "liberate themselves from the enslavement of these oppressive, unjust, apostate ruling governments, which in turn are enslaved by America".
Suicide attacks killed dozens in two of those countries Morocco and Saudi Arabia in the last few days.
It is worth paying attention to such rare bin Laden statements.
Saudi officials say they expect another attack on their soil imminently. The United States says it is far from immune.
Most say al-Qaida's favoured tactic suicide attack is almost impossible to prevent without arduous intelligence work.
"It must be emphasised that al-Qaida is still capable of carrying out virtually any type of terrorist attack that it was able to execute in the past," wrote Israeli terror expert Yoni Fighel in a recent report.
"The fact that al-Qaida's operational capabilities are scattered around the world in loosely affiliated cells makes it difficult to predict where the next attack will occur and to thwart it in time," he wrote.
If bin Laden's last tape gives a hint as to where attackers from his al-Qaida could strike, the identities of the suicide bombers offer a valuable insight into al-Qaida itself.
One of the 15 bombers who died in Riyadh was just 19, too young to have been trained in now-demolished camps in Afghanistan and almost certainly a new recruit to a group that is rebuilding.
US success in destroying al-Qaida's haven in Afghanistan has brought new dangers and failed to curb the ambitions of a network whose attack killed 34 in Saudi Arabia last week.
"What this means is that after they were dispersed from Afghanistan they have spread and reconsolidated themselves and are more dangerous for the Americans and counter-terrorist operatives because we knew where they were," said David Wright-Neville, former senior terrorism adviser to Australia's Office of National Assessments, the equivalent of the US National Security Agency.
"Now we don't know," said Wright-Neville, now at the Monash Global Terrorism Research Unit in Melbourne.
A wide field exists from which to recruit.
Extended families of al-Qaida members, clan networks and those alienated by US triumphs in attacks on Arab soil constitute rich pickings.
"A surge in recruits after Iraq is common sense," said Wright-Neville.
"The only lesson from Iraq is that no state in the world can confront the Americans with a chance of success," said Abuza.
"The only way to make the Americans taste the humiliation that Arabs feel on a daily basis is through terrorism. And the only person who can do that is Osama bin Laden and his loose network," he said.
AL-QAIDA is regrouping, experts agree, but is in no rush to attack. It usually averages about two years between major strikes because of the level of planning and preparation required.
Yet it must show that it is still active and able, they say.
"Is it unreasonable to expect that it takes them a few years to pull off a major attack when most major security services in the world are looking for them?" said Abuza.
The discovery of 800lb (364kg) of explosives in Riyadh after a gunbattle with 19 suspected al-Qaida believed days later to have carried out the suicide bombing attacks is a signal.
"As Hitler said, 'I didn't build an army not to use it'. I think they are really gearing up for something," said Abuza.
With bin Laden almost certainly alive, his network can find inspiration. "The organisation is sufficiently disciplined that it doesn't need to rely on him," said Wright-Neville.
"But while he remains alive he is a figurehead, a rallying point, a sign of the success of the struggle."
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