Regional election rout isolates Schroeder

GERMAN Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder was looking increasingly lonely yesterday after a regional election rout compounded growing international isolation over his strict anti-war stance on Iraq.

Landslide defeats for his Social Democrats (SPD) in his home state of Lower Saxony and in Hesse on Sunday will make it more difficult for his

centre-left government to pass laws without backing from the conservative opposition. Leading Social Democrats called the SPD’s worst performance since 1945 in the two states a disaster.

But they tried to allay fears of political gridlock just as the stagnant economy, Europe’s largest, needs aggressive reforms to get moving again.

Mr Schroeder has declined to comment so far but was due to address a news conference after an SPD leadership meeting last night. Even the weather seemed to be against him as snow delayed his trip from his home in Hanover by hours.

As tabloid Bild ran the banner headline “Is This Schroeder’s End?” political analysts said he could cope with the election defeat but that his Iraq stance might cost him his job.

“If he doesn’t get himself out of his cul-de-sac on Iraq, he may decide to step down and pave the way for a change of government,” said political scientist Frank Decker. isolation would be total.

“He can’t stick to his position, but he has raised expectations among his own supporters that he will,” Decker said. “He was elected on a mandate of peace.”

Meanwhile, Social Democrats were contrite about the poll defeat and vowed to press on with reforms of the country’s cost-laden social insurance system and over-regulated job market to combat unemployment, expected to hit 4.55 million in January.

Analysts said the rout would provoke a struggle between left-wingers and moderates in the SPD, with the outcome determining whether the economy can be reformed.

Mr Schroeder, re-elected last September partly due to his opposition to an Iraq war, has ruled out joining military action or backing war in a UN Security Council vote.

Analysts say that position, even though it is popular in war-weary Germany, may become untenable if the US presents enough evidence of Iraqi weapons this week to convince a majority on the Security Council to back a military strike.

If Germany voted against war or abstained in a Security Council vote, and France decided to break ranks with Germany and back war, Mr Schroeder’s

isolation would be total. “He can’t stick to his position, but he has raised expectations among his own supporters that he will,” Decker said. “He was elected on a mandate of peace.”

Meanwhile, Social Democrats were contrite about the poll defeat and vowed to press on with reforms of the country’s cost-laden social insurance system and over-regulated job market to combat unemployment, expected to hit 4.55 million in January.

Analysts said the rout would provoke a struggle between left-wingers and moderates in the SPD, with the outcome determining whether the economy can be reformed.