France heads for political upheaval as No vote looms

FRANCE headed towards a political earthquake yesterday as polls showed voters were set to reject the European Union Constitution in a referendum and open the door to a period of political uncertainty.

Treaty supporters say rejection in tomorrow’s vote would kill the constitution and weaken France in Europe. Opponents say a No would force the EU to redraft the treaty, giving more protection for social services and workers.

President Jacques Chirac’s televised appeal to voters on Thursday evening not to use the vote to punish his unpopular government left most commentators cold and his hint he would be changing prime ministers was met with derision.

“If the No wins, there will be not only a European crisis ... but also an enormous political upheaval in France,” said Christophe Barbier, deputy editor of L’Express magazine.

“All the leaders of the large parties will be discredited and we will enter a period of uncertainty which will be twilight time for Jacques Chirac and a jungle for all the parties trying to survive,” he told Europe 1 radio.

Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero went to Lille and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who secured parliament’s approval for the charter yesterday, was in Toulouse for last-minute rallies supporting the treaty.

In Rome, where European leaders signed the constitution last October, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi urged the French to vote Yes.

Mr Chirac hailed the approval of the charter by Germany’s upper house of parliament and used the result as a final opportunity to laud the treaty.

“On the eve of the French people’s choice, Germany’s decision takes on a special and symbolic importance, and I salute it,” Mr Chirac wrote to Mr Schroeder.

The charter’s backers still hoped for a ballot box surprise, but the steady rise of the No vote in recent opinion polls to 55% seemed to make the result a foregone conclusion.

The Netherlands votes in a referendum next Wednesday, with polls pointing to a No.

Warnings of political uncertainty if the constitution is voted down seem only to have encouraged the No camp to thumb its nose at the leaders urging them to vote for it, political scientist Philippe Mechet told LCI television.

“If you say there will be chaos tomorrow, they say fine, let’s cause some chaos and see how they get out of it,” he said.

Pollster Jerome Jaffre said voters’ “disappointment and frustration will grow larger until 2007” - the date of the next presidential and parliamentary elections.