Election race tightens after Schroeder wins TV debate

GERMAN conservative challenger Angela Merkel’s opinion poll lead has shrunk since her TV debate with Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and she may not achieve her goal of a centre-right coalition, surveys yesterday showed.

A poll by research institute Forsa, carried out on September 5 and 6 immediately after Sunday’s debate, showed a centre-right coalition between Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) and the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) winning a combined 48% of the vote, one point less than the total of all other parties.

Together with a separate survey by pollsters Emnid, which gave Merkel’s coalition a one-point lead, it suggested the debate on Sunday has narrowed the race ahead of the German election on September 18.

Victory for the conservative-led coalition with the FDP, once considered a near-certainty, could be under threat, with a “grand coalition” between the centre-left SPD and the conservative CDU/CSU now looking more likely.

Forsa chief Manfred Guellner said Schroeder’s performance in the television duel had evidently helped mobilise undecided SPD voters, many of whom had been alienated by his market-friendly reform policies and tough welfare cuts.

“Some of the undecided SPD voters have come back and that is what has given them the extra three points. We’ll have to wait to see if they can hold on to them,” Guellner said in Berlin.

Merkel would still be the most likely chancellor in a grand coalition, with Schroeder stepping down, but it would represent a huge blow after expectations of a triumphant return to power for the conservatives after seven years in opposition.

Most German media saw the debate as a draw or gave Schroeder a slight advantage, but surveys showed viewers clearly believed it was won by the chancellor.

“There were 21 million viewers and their verdict was that Schroeder had won the duel,” Guellner said. “It was clear.”

The surveys coincided with the last parliamentary debate before the election, with Schroeder and Merkel clearly sharpening the tone from their television debate and accusing each other of lying and deception over tax and finance plans.

Financial markets have been counting on a Merkel-led centre-right government to push forward economic reforms and analysts have said share markets would be likely to fall if there was either a “grand coalition” or a left-wing coalition.