Bird flu pandemic ‘may trigger world recession’

THREE Indonesian children are feared to be the latest victims of bird flu as the Asian Development Bank warned the disease could trigger a global recession if a pandemic breaks out.

The bank also warned the disease could kill three million people in Asia, and trigger economic carnage in the region worth around €250 billion.

The warning was among several dire scenarios pictured by the bank in a report that examined the likely effects on the region if bird flu produces a human pandemic that slashes consumer demand and sickens millions of workers.

In its grimmest scenario, in which the psychological impact of a pandemic lasts one year, the bank said Asia could loss almost €250bn or 6.5% of gross domestic product in consumption, trade and investment and another €10bn due to workers' incapacity and death.

The economic impact would likely force the world into a recession, it said.

The scenario assumes about 20% of Asia's population would fall ill, and 0.5% of them would die.

In a separate report, the World Bank said bird flu was already harming several East Asian economies. Costs so far have been limited around 0.1% to 0.2% of gross domestic product in Vietnam but could rise significantly, the bank said.

Milan Brahmbhatt, author of the report, said a human pandemic caused by bird flu could cost the world economy as much as €670bn.

Underlining the increasing urgency in tackling the H5N1 avian flu virus, the US and China announced new efforts to fight a possible pandemic, including €418 million to monitor the virus in poultry.

Five south-east Asian nations also said they would boost co-operation to fight the virus, which has killed 62 people in Asia and infected 122 since late 2003. The disease has since spread to Europe and it is feared migratory birds could carry it to Africa.

In Indonesia, where four people have died of bird flu since July, Health Minister Siti Fadillah Supari said three children, all under the age of five, had high fever, shortness of breath and signs of viral infection.

In Vietnam, the country hardest hit by the virus, a senior health official ruled out bird flu as the cause of last week's deaths of two people. But a 25-year-old woman is in hospital with suspected bird flu.

Hospital officials had earlier said a 14-year-old girl and a 26-year-old man who died last week had symptoms of bird flu.

Doctors have said they did not do any tests and it was unclear how officials ruled out bird flu as the cause of death.

Bird flu has infected more than 90 people in Vietnam and 41 have died since the latest outbreak in Asia began in late 2003. Experts fear the virus could mutate into a form easily passed between people and unleash a pandemic.

The World Health OrganiSation says H5N1 is now endemic in many poultry flocks in the region. Experts say the disease must be controlled in poultry in Asia where farmers and livestock live side-by-side.

Health officials expect more avian flu cases during the coming winter, when influenza viruses seem to thrive.

Scientists say this is because viruses survive better in cooler and wetter environments and people crowd together in the festive season, creating the perfect setting for viruses to proliferate.

"With higher levels of stress, that assists the virus to take hold and reduces our ability to fight it off in the first instance so our first barriers to infection are easily overcome," said Alan Hampson, an influenza expert and former deputy director of the WHO's Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza in Melbourne.