Dean bounces back but Kerry holds lead ahead of vote

DEMOCRATIC presidential hopeful John Kerry’s lead over Howard Dean dipped slightly, but he still holds a formidable seven-point advantage two days before the New Hampshire primary, according to a Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll released yesterday.

Mr Kerry led Mr Dean 30% to 23% in the latest three-day tracking poll, with Wesley Clark dropping one percentage point to 13% and John Edwards and Joseph Lieberman both gaining on Mr Clark at 9%.

“Dean had another good polling day, actually bouncing back to 25 points on Saturday compared to Kerry’s 28,” said pollster John Zogby. “The race looks as though it is tightening, however, it is Kerry’s to lose at this point.”

A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night’s results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.

The number of undecided voters was 13% but rose slightly on the final day of polling, “indicating a shift may be taking place,” Mr Zogby said.

The Democratic race in New Hampshire was turned upside down by the results of last Monday’s Iowa caucuses, where Mr Kerry rolled to a big win and one-time front-runner Mr Dean, the former governor of Vermont, collapsed to third place in the race to find a challenger to President George W Bush.

Mr Dean, who once held a 20-point lead over Mr Kerry in New Hampshire, said on Saturday he was poised for a comeback. Mr Kerry, a senator from neighbouring Massachusetts, said he would not take anything for granted as the state’s notoriously independent-minded electorate ponders its choice in tomorrow’s primary.

Mr Clark, the retired general and former NATO commander, was facing a late charge from Mr Edwards and Mr Lieberman for third place. Mr Lieberman, a Connecticut senator, gained two percentage points and Mr Edwards, a North Carolina senator, gained one point to move within striking distance of Mr Clark. The poll showed Mr Kerry still leads among most groups of voters, including union members, but Mr Dean was beginning to regain lost ground among the college-educated, young voters and independents, the state’s largest voting bloc who can vote in either party’s primary.

The poll of 601 likely primary voters was taken Thursday through Saturday and has a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points. It will continue through tomorrow, the day of the New Hampshire primary.