Cox could well be a strong contender for commission presidency

WITH the chill autumn winds blowing around the street corners of Brussels, there is a sense that the European Union is unravelling at the edges.

This has to do with the end of another five-year term coming up for the European Parliament and the EU Commissioners in June.

For months now people in the cabinets of the various commissioners have been applying for more long term jobs in the Commission civil service itself.

There is a sense too that there is not much reason to launch new initiatives in case those responsible will not be there to push them through.

Some MEPs have already announced they will not run for election while others are still making up their minds.

Countries have lost seats in the parliament as part of the reorganisation needed to accommodate the 10 new countries, who will be taking up their seats for the first time next year.

Many of the 15 commissioners have been indicating how they see their future. Ireland's David Byrne, has made no secret of his desire to stay on.

One person who knows for sure he will be out of his current job is the President of the Parliament, Pat Cox. He will have served just a term of two and a half years because he shared the position with the representative of the largest grouping, the European People's Party.

The people will decide Ireland's 13 MEPs in June, but it will be up to the Taoiseach to appoint the new commissioner. There will also be three other positions open the President of the Commission and two new posts, President of the Council and EU Minister for Foreign Affairs.

The commission president is nominated by his fellow commissioners, but must be approved by the heads of state, which makes this a very political issue at the end of the day.

Ireland has not been in a position to offer someone who would be known to and respected by government leaders in the past, with the possible exception of Peter Sutherland. And the Fianna Fáil government in office at the time was not interested in giving this Fine Gael nominee a second term in Brussels.

There is some talk that he would be interested in this job now. But there are also signs that Pat Cox is. And there are signs that he may be one of the very few politicians in Europe who has managed to create a space for himself in the heads of the 25 heads of government.

He has successfully wooed them over the past two years gaining their trust and respect in a way not seen before.

Traditionally, for instance, the President of the Parliament was allowed into the leaders summit to address them formally and then left without another word.

President Cox has managed to engage them in conversation during his audiences with them and in an unprecedented move has been invited to sit in with them when they discuss the new constitution.

Fianna Fáil had a tendency in the past to use the jobs in Europe to get rid of people from the national scene or to ensure they do not create an unwelcome by-election.

However after his six months representing the EU during Ireland's presidency, Taoiseach Bertie Ahern might be persuaded to be more ambitious for Ireland in Europe. Having an able Irish politician like Mr Cox as commission president would be no bad move.