City unlikely to relinquish firm grasp on football any time soon
NO END IN SIGHT: Manchester City's Kevin De Bruyne with the UEFA Champions League trophy.
Manchester City’s Champions League victory on Saturday may feel like the top of the mountain - but the bad news for their rivals at home and in Europe, is there are very few signs that Pep Guardiola’s men are ready to begin a slow decent next season.
With City players and fans still celebrating, other giants around them cannot the same period of relaxation and reflection.
The Premier League fixture list is released on Thursday, City have already been installed as favourites to lift that particular trophy again (at odds of 8/15), and you will struggle to get better than 2/1 on them winning the Champions League again.
Those are daunting figures for the likes of Arsenal, Man United, Liverpool, Arsenal, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and PSG, who are all sat around boardroom tables right now discussing how much to spend, who to buy and how to tweak their tactics in a bid to end City’s dominance.
But what are the chances of that really happening?
City’s squad has an average age of around 27, which suggests they may well peak next year, and there is plenty of young talent coming through - and plenty of money to buy more, as they did last season with Erling Haaland.
At 22, the Norwegian will surely be even better in the future - and having scored over 50 club goals in a campaign which was meant to be a settling-in season, it’s mind-boggling what he could do next.
City won both the FA Cup and Champions League finals without Haaland performing at his best or contributing goals. So what on Earth could they achieve if he hit top form in the big moments next year?
Two possibilities spring to mind, dream achievements that until now have been dismissed and considered impossible.
The first is the Double Treble. Could they do what no team in any country has ever done and lift domestic league and cup - plus the Champions League - two years in a row?
Bookmakers offer odds of just 16/1, a crazy figure when you consider only one team in history - Real Madrid - has successfully defended the Champions League, let alone won all the rest at home in the same campaign.
The second is the Quadruple. All the trophies that City won this year, plus the League Cup (in which they were knocked out by Southampton last time).
Again, this has never been achieved in football history (most of the big leagues don’t even have the burden of a second cup competition). But Steve Freeth at bet365 seems to think we should not rule it out, offering odds of 66/1.
“I know it’s never been done before, but gone are the days of Manchester City being a monster three-figure price to win the quadruple,” he said.
“If it wasn’t for Nathan Jones a few months ago, we could arguably be talking about it being landed in Istanbul, but having finally tasted Champions League success, you can see them continuing to dominate Europe’s top table for a while yet.”
Manchester United fans who are desperately hoping the noisy neighbours flounder in that quest can ironically take hope from their own history - because even their greatest legends have been unable to defend Europe’s biggest trophy after winning it.
What is less encouraging, although an enjoyable exercise in reminiscence, is looking back on what happened to the United Treble heroes of 1999 in terms of domestic success.
The following year, United went on to dominate the Premier League, winning it by a then-record 18-point margin and scoring 97 goals.
The belief and gravitas gained by that Treble success made them even stronger, and more difficult to beat. They couldn’t win the Champions League again, Real Madrid saw to that, but they were Premier League winners seven more times in all before Sir Alex Ferguson retired in 2013.
They regained the Champions League in 2008 when they came tantalisingly close to another Treble (losing to Portsmouth in an FA Cup quarter-final in which Rio Ferdinand ended up in goals when Tomasz Kuszczak was sent off, and the centre-half couldn’t save Sulley Muntari’s winning penalty).
City’s squad is slightly older than the side of 1999 but until Guardiola leaves, it’s hard to find any evidence to support a theory that they will not follow the same path their neighbours did all those years ago.
United and Chelsea will hope that new ownership, and new funds make a difference- as will new rivals Newcastle United. But money isn’t everything - otherwise we’d be talking about PSG’s all-conquering heroes rather than those from Manchester.
Let’s see what the fixtures bring on Thursday. For those who are chasing it’s always an exciting time when the table has yet to be drawn and all dreams remain achievable. But sorry to burst your bubble United, Liverpool and Arsenal, but this City side doesn’t look like dropping its standards - or its ambitions - any time soon.
They only need to look at what rivals United did in the 14 years after Treble glory to know what’s achievable.
Or perhaps they are aiming even higher…
2000, 2001, 2003, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2013
2008.
1999.
2008.
2004.
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