Can Thomas Partey and Arsenal take advantage of Casemiro's absence?

The key Man Utd midfielder was booked in midweek and will miss this weekend's crucial Premier League clash.

Sat, 21 Jan, 2023 - 07:26

Johnny Nicholson

Manchester United’s Casemiro got himself booked late on in the midweek game against Crystal Palace, which was rather careless of him, and that card rules him out of the Arsenal game this weekend. He was set to be at the heart of the showdown between two of the most successful midfielders of the season; himself and Thomas Partey. But how crucial is each man to their team? Does the Brazilian’s suspension hand the advantage in the big game to Arsenal? Would Partey be a bigger miss to the Gunners if he was unavailable? How crucial has Casemiro been for the Red Devils resurgent form?

Opta stats measure almost everything in a game and if we take a deep dive into their analysis, it reveals some fascinating facts about both players. Before the midweek game, Casemiro had played 1068 Premier League minutes to Thomas Partey’s 1304 and that has to be borne in mind when comparing numbers.

The entry level stat is that Casemiro has three assists to Partey’s zero and both have scored twice. He has also created one more chance with 14 to the Ghanaian’s 13. But that’s just the headlines, look deeper and other trends emerge. Each player has their strengths, each does certain things better than the other.

United legend, Rio Ferdinand has said Casemiro is a better midfielder, claiming the Brazilian’s stats ‘wipe away’ Partey. So let’s look deeper and harder to see if that’s true or just the biased view of an ex-United player.

When it comes to what they do with the ball, Partey pulls ahead with 65 progressive passes to 52. A successful progressive pass is defined as “completed open-play passes in the attacking two-thirds of the pitch that move the ball at least 25% closer to the goal.” Partey has simply passed the ball more too with 991 passes to 735, but then, he’s played more minutes. His passing is also more accurate at 86.88 % to 79.33%. Importantly, more of those passes end in the final third, meaning he is putting the ball into the danger zone more often.

Given this dominant form in possession, perhaps unsurprisingly, he’s had 233 more touches of the ball with 1192 to 941. So we can see that it is the Arsenal man that has been more progressive and more creative for his team, even allowing for his greater game time. He has been at the heart of their success in winning 15 out of 18 games.

However, that is far from the whole story. When we look at passing sequences that each player started which ended in shots at goal, Casemiro leads with 23 to 20 but they are equal on three each for goals scored from passing moves that they started.

Of course, many of these stats are interrelated to how each team sets up, what tactics they play and what is asked of each player. And let’s be honest, Arsenal have been significantly more successful this season and are eight points ahead of United.

Yet when we look at the defensive side of the game, the Brazilian has a different and superior side to his game. Basically he tackles a lot more, 46 tackles to 34, and 18 interceptions to 17. What’s more, he has dribbled past his opponents 16 times to Partey’s 11.

Of course, this is what Casemiro made his name at Real Madrid for. He won five Champions Leagues policing the back four and his huge 19-trophy haul speaks for itself about how good he was at it. Partey on the other hand has got just three pieces of silverware in the trophy cabinet and is only a year younger. But that probably only tells us that Casemiro has played in a far better team for far longer.

YELLOW PERIL: Manchester United's Casemiro is shown a yellow card by referee John Brooks, resulting in a suspension which will rule him out of his side's next match against Arsenal.

But for as good as the Brazilian is at disruptive defending, if you want a player to gain possession of the ball, Partey is your man. He has won possession 116 times to Casemiro’s 88 and in doing so has conceded far less fouls, with just 16 to the United man’s 28. He’s also been given two yellows to Casemiro’s five.

So what does all of this deep statistical analysis tell us? First and foremost, both are in excellent form and there’s no doubt that United will miss Casemiro’s presence and perhaps especially his ability to break up the opposition’s play. He made a career out of mopping up play at Real Madrid and starting progressive moves and has carried that into his United career. He has more experience at playing and winning the biggest of games than anyone in either team. He’s cool, he’s made out of granite and knows how to handle himself in the toughest of matches. Who wouldn’t miss that?

Both look axiomatic to how their teams play. By and large Partey is more effective when on the ball. While he hasn’t got any assists, he’s the man at the base of many of their more threatening moves, he’s the one winning possession, getting the ball into the final third and making progressive moves.

However, Casemiro is brilliant at covering his defence and, like Partey, can also start attacking moves. Importantly, his replacements - probably Fred or Scott McTominay - are a significant drop in quality.

Eric ten Hag has already said that Lissandro Martinez can’t play in Casemiro’s position because he can’t do the amount of running it requires, so there’s no doubt they will miss the bullish Brazilian massively.

That fifth yellow card has definitely handed the initiative to Arsenal in this huge game and in one of the most important areas of the pitch too. The question now is, can they and Thomas Partey take advantage of it?