Johnny Nicholson: Is it still believable that Liverpool could win all four?
Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp celebrates his side's first goal on the touchline during the Premier League match at Anfield, Liverpool. Picture date: Saturday May 7, 2022. PA Photo. See PA story SOCCER Liverpool. Photo: Peter Byrne/PA Wire.
The arguments for them ending up with just the one trophy they already hold are quite persuasive because it is so difficult to win more than one trophy, let alone four, especially as it would involve winning five games on the spin under maximum pressure. The core logic behind feeling they’ll lose the league, FA Cup and Champions League is that basically, they’re knackered and have run out of steam. They certainly looked a little fatigued mentally and physically against Spurs. They play a high-intensity running game which relies on high pressing, robbing the ball and breaking fast. They also keep a high defensive line which means defenders need bursts of pace to recover situations when the opposition break their lines.
Even being 5% off your peak can be fatal. In short, it's the worst system to play if your squad is burnt out after a long season. It is a system that leaves you exposed if you are not playing it at maximum intensity. Basically, it makes it easier for teams to get in behind you because there is so much space to run into.
City already have one hand on the title and easily overcame Newcastle on Sunday to put them three points ahead and with a better goal difference. Despite getting mugged by Real Madrid in Europe, they showed zero signs of not being up the battle, if anything, quite the reverse. The league is gone.
As regards the FA Cup, Chelsea need to put a trophy in the cabinet after a topsy turvy season which has taken turns that no-one could’ve predicted, with Roman Abramovitch being driven out by order of the government. All three games between the two sides have been drawn this season, so Chelsea will feel they’re due a win after losing the League Cup 11-10 on penalties. It will be very tight, of course and there’ll only be one goal in it or maybe it will go to penalties again.
Liverpool are playing their last Premier League game at Wolves six days before the Champions League final, a trophy that seems to have Real Madrid’s name on after their incredible performances in the knockout rounds.
Having lost the league and the FA Cup, it is not hard to see a dispirited Reds beaten by a Real Madrid side that never knows when it's beaten and in Karim Benzema one of Europe’s most in-form strikers.
Personally, I think this is the most likely option of the four, but which will they win? The league seems hardest and relies on City falling apart, something, if their 5-0 walloping of Newcastle is anything to go by, is just not going to happen. They had not lost any appetite or confidence after losing in Europe midweek, as many had predicted. City also have a pretty easy final three games, are already three points ahead and with a better goal difference. The league is surely gone even if Liverpool win their remaining games, which is by no means inevitable when one is against Steven Gerrard and Aston Villa. What’s more, they likely accept that and have already turned their attention to winning the two finals.
So which is the easiest game, Chelsea in the FA Cup Final or Real Madrid in the Champions League? That’s pretty much a no-brainer. Even though Chelsea need to win something this season, Liverpool have not lost to the Blues this season and beat them in the League Cup final. They will be favourites to win again. Chelsea's inconsistent end of season was typified by their 2-2 draw with Wolves on Saturday after being two up. They have yet to resolve how to play Romelu Lukaku, or indeed whether to play the £100 million man at all. There’s no doubt they are talented but have not been firing on all cylinders for a few weeks now.
But Real will be a difficult opponent. They already have their league title wrapped up and they'll be well rested by 28th May. Having had the luck go their way in the tournament so far - they should’ve lost both games against City, if City had only taken a couple more of many chances - along with their incredible depth of experience at this level, it is easy to argue for them beating Liverpool in a one-off game.
While it is perhaps fanciful to believe any club has their name on the cup, having overcome the odds so often, why wouldn’t they do it again in the final, especially if they fall behind and have to come back to win it with a late strike? At times this season it has felt like Madrid have been writing their own scripts.
So two out of four it is. Not bad at all, but not myth-making.
If Liverpool lose their next league game away at Aston Villa on Tuesday and City beat a Wolves team that has lost four of the last six at Molineaux the following day, leaving them six points ahead of the Reds, Liverpool may decide the league is gone and it is not worth competing in their final two games, casting them aside to focus on the cup finals. While it may seem unforgivable to basically give up on the Premier League, in actual fact it makes complete sense.
Psychologically it may really work in their favour. Instead of having the pressure of winning five games, now it’s only two. And they are surely good enough to win two games. At this stage much is won and lost in the psychology of the situation. Cutting themselves free of the league would give them freedom and drive them to beat a somewhat flakey Chelsea in order to pick up the FA Cup.
This in turn means they won’t feel as stretched for the Champions League final as they bin off their final two Premier League games, resting all their best players for a full two weeks for a big effort in the final.
It is also worth remembering that Liverpool have a superb and deep squad, making them resilient to depletion via injuries. Plus they have the cheat code that is Divock Origi, a man who only scores massive title-winning goals. If they need a winner with five minutes to go, Origi is the man to deliver it.
Real Madrid are beatable. They’re defensively weak having conceded 11 goals in the knockout rounds and they have relied on almost ludicrously unlikely performances in the second leg of each to get them through. They were second best for 90 minutes against City but still managed to win. You can call it a great never-say-die attitude or you can call it luck, but how often can that happen in one season? Surely they have used up all of their nine lives. It’s worth considering that this is a one-off game. There can be no second leg comeback for Madrid.
A well-rested Liverpool have the pace to destroy an aged midfield and defence. On top of that Mo Salah has been going through a bit of a goal drought. What better game to rediscover his goal-scoring form? Big players often do big things in big games.
There are plenty of arguments as to why Liverpool simply cannot win all four trophies, but stranger things have happened. It is, after all, just five games to win. Win all five and they will definitely have three trophies, the fourth relies on City getting well beaten at West Ham or Wolves, or losing at home against Aston Villa. West Ham are in a good run of form at home and want to cement a Europa League place. City need not even lose any remaining games for them to cede the title to Liverpool. Two draws and a win in those last three games will, if Liverpool win all their games, hand the title to Merseyside.
The FA Cup against Chelsea is very achievable because Thomas Tuchel’s side have to play Leeds at Elland Road before the cup final. Leeds are fighting for their life and although they can be rank bad on any day, they are also capable of beating Chelsea on a good day. Kalvin Philips is back and while they shot themself in the foot twice in their game against Arsenal on Sunday, they’ll take heart from a good second-half performance, winning the second 45 one-nil. Elland Road will also be in full-throated voice and can be an intimidating place to go. It is not the easiest game to play, three days before a cup final and Leeds can play dirty. They have more bookings than any other Premier League side. Injuries to Chelsea players are far from unlikely. It all points to a Liverpool win.
So they arrive in Paris with three titles in the trophy cabinet. They will feel unbeatable. They will take the game to Real and have the firepower to absolutely batter them. And let's face it, Madrid are due a real beating. They have played poorly for the majority of the minutes of their six knockout games and have let in 11 goals. A rampant Liverpool could overrun their midfield, beat them on the flanks and be quicker than them through the middle. A four or five-goal win is certainly not beyond the bounds of possibility against the elderly Madrid side.
And so on 28th May, we will once again see Jordan Henderson doing his fast little shuffle before thrusting the Champions League trophy high into the Paris night air, their fourth and final title of the season.
Sounds almost believable, doesn’t it?
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