Assessing Ireland’s chances as daunting trip to Portugal awaits

Firstly, the good news: Portugal have failed to win their last three games, losing twice. The caveat - the quality of opponent

How young goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu fares in stopping a goal-hungry Cristiano Ronaldo will be key if Ireland are to produce a shock result. Picture: Stephen McCarthy/Sportsfile

Portugal’s form guide

Firstly, the good news: Portugal have failed to win their last three games, losing twice.

The caveat here is the quality of opposition they faced over the group of death and last-16 of the Euros in June.

Germany — world champions in 2014 — beat them 3-2, while they were held 2-2 by France. Belgium, top of Fifa’s rankings, inflicted a 1-0 defeat in the knockout stage. Three nations operating in a different stratosphere to Ireland.

Before facing those fellow superpowers, Portugal lost just once, to France, in their last 16 matches; 11 were victories.

The Gaffer: Fernando Santos

After a modest playing career, Santos made his name at Estoril, earning him a move to Porto.

He also managed Benfica and Sporting, as well as PAOK, which paved the way for his appointment as Greece boss.

It was inevitable after leading Greece to the knockout stages of the World Cup that his home nation would come calling.

He took the Portuguese job in 2014 and will celebrate his seven-year anniversary next month, having brought the country their first major honour — the 2016 Euro title. Under contract until 2024, he has battled against criticism from some quarters to retain the support of his decorated stars, especially Cristiano Ronaldo.

The venue: Estádio Algarve

Built especially for Portugal’s hosting of Euro 2020, the venue has attracted a reputation for being a white elephant due to its limited use.

Irish holidaymakers would be familiar with the sight of the stadium while travelling to Faro Airport, devoid of any real supporting infrastructure or amenities.

Ireland’s women’s team played there during the Algarve Cup, while the men’s team beat Gibraltar 4-0 in 2015. Holding 31,000 fans, only 7,865 will be allowed in due to Covid-19 restrictions.

Reasons for Ireland to be cheerful

Nothing to lose: With expectations low and their Fifa ranking getting lower, Ireland aren’t given a hope of causing an upset. That amounts to a free hit. Nicking late draws away to Italy (2009) and Germany (2014) can act as inspiration. Something has to.

New generation ready to prosper: Darren Randolph’s axing from the squad continued Stephen Kenny’s radical overall, and he keeps telling the public those decisions will be vindicated. Matt Doherty said better opposition makes Ireland sharper, and that will be tested against some of the best players in the world. Unfazed and undaunted, there’s no bigger stage for them to deliver.

Portugal’s dithering start: Portugal have yet to hit their usual heights in the campaign. The seven points accrued in March’s triple-header were via a one-goal victory over Azerbaijan, a come-from-behind 3-1 win in Luxembourg, and their 2-2 draw in Serbia. Each of those three nations got at the Portuguese during spells of the qualifiers, and Ireland should be confident of asking questions of them too.

Reasons for Ireland to be fearful

Results don’t lie: To try to eke out a result in Portugal is difficult at the best of times, but Ireland’s record over the best part of two years offers little encouragement. Including Mick McCarthy’s final game, the 1-1 draw against Denmark in the concluding Euro qualifiers, Andorra are the only team Ireland have beaten over 14 matches. England were the highest-ranked team among the opposition — they enjoyed a 3-0 stroll at Wembley, slowing up and scoring the third early in the second half.

Where will the goals come from? During that run, Ireland have failed to score in nine, the only goals coming against Andorra (4), Serbia (2), Denmark (1), Bulgaria (1), and Qatar (1). Troy Parrott’s brace against Andorra got him off the mark, but his fellow young strikers Aaron Connolly and Adam Idah, both more likely to start, have yet to score.

Cristiano Ronaldo: One man, one game, and one world record. Manchester United’s prodigal son is a man in a hurry and would prefer to become the top scorer in international football in front of his own fans. History beckons, and Ireland have a job to avoid being mere extras in the celebratory scenes.

Ireland’s record against Portugal: Of the 11 meetings between the two, Ireland won four, drew the two 2002 World Cup qualifiers, and have lost seven times.

Three key battles

Dara O’Shea v João Cancelo: The absence of Enda Stevens leaves Kenny with a decision to make on the left. James McClean and Ryan Manning are options, but O’Shea’s solid form makes him favourite to take the berth, lining up directly against João Cancelo. Covid-19 robbed the Manchester City star of participation in the Euros, but he’s back to his best, as shown against Arsenal on Saturday, and will relish bombing down the right flank to augment the attack.

Aaron Connolly v Rúben Dias: Another Manchester City defender presents an obstacle to Ireland’s counter-attacking strategy, with Connolly likely to be chasing in the channels, more in hope than expectation. Dias, fresh from committing his future to the Blues, has kept finer talents than the Galwegian at bay, and it could transpire that Connolly turns his attention towards the other central defender, 38-year-old Pepe, sniffing for a weak link.

Gavin Bazunu v Cristiano Ronaldo: Even more than is customary, the Portuguese skipper will be shooting on sight with the world record up for grabs. The man on free-kicks and penalties is fond of a speculative effort from distance, and teenager Bazunu will have to be alert in the Irish goal, needing to play the game of his life to keep Ronaldo, never mind Portugal, scoreless.