The Harry Kane conundrum: A contract often means little in football

Where does Kane stand now? How will Tottenham cope if he leaves, or could he yet stay? And what does it mean for Man City if they do not land the guaranteed goal machine to replace Sergio Aguero?

Harry Kane

Every summer there is a transfer saga that drags on, fascinating or frustrating fans in equal measure, and Harry Kane ensured it would be his future in the daily spotlight when expressing a desire to leave Tottenham last May.

It was a bold statement to make, considering that Kane has three years to run on a lucrative deal and a chairman, Daniel Levy, who is famous for playing hardball in the transfer market.

It risked alienating the huge Tottenham fanbase that has worshipped local boy Kane as ‘one of our own” for the past six years and also threatened to tarnish his image as a model professional.

Pep Guardiola has gone public in his desire to sign him, and Kane’s representatives have briefed reporters that the reigning Premier League champions are his preferred choice.

But as Manchester City travel to Tottenham for their opening game of the season tomorrow — almost three months since he made his intentions clear — Kane’s future is still uncertain.

Ironically it is not even guaranteed he will play, given the controversy surrounding his situation and his late return to pre-season training, after a period of isolation following a family holiday in the Caribbean.

So where does Kane stand now? How will Tottenham cope if he leaves, or could he yet stay? And what does it mean for City if they do not land the guaranteed goal machine to replace Sergio Aguero?

Only one thing is certain — if Kane departs, it will be one of the biggest transfer fees in history, easily smashing the British record of €118 million City paid Aston Villa for Jack Grealish last week. But as ever, such big transfers are rarely straightforward, with a chain of other events set in motion.

The most obvious scenario is that City’s fabulously wealthy owners decide that Levy’s asking price of around €177m is within their budget, for a player who would fill an Aguero-sized hole and pretty much guarantee a return of 20 plus Premier League goals a season, and give them the added firepower to achieve their ultimate target of Champions League glory.

So far they have offered significantly less cash but with various players thrown into the mix — Raheem Sterling, Gabriel Jesus and Bernardo Silva have all been mooted.

Spurs are not interested in such a deal, believing they are well-covered in all those positions. Another scenario is that Kane agitates for a move, refusing to train or play. Virgil Van Dijk, famously went on ‘strike’ at Southampton in order to force his transfer to Liverpool three seasons ago.

But that is not Kane’s style, and having come through the ranks at Spurs from the age of 9, he would never want to alienate the fan base or club.

The England international believes he has a ‘gentleman’s agreement’ with the club from last summer that he would be allowed to move if Spurs were not winning or, at least, competing for trophies. Levy might argue that, having led the Premier League at various stages, and then reaching last season’s Carabao Cup final, two years on from being runners-up in the Champions League final, Tottenham were still capable of challenging the likes of City.

But as we know, a contract often means little in football, let alone an unwritten agreement. So another scenario has emerged whereby Levy offers Kane a new, more lucrative contract which includes a specific clause allowing him to leave if a club comes in for him, subject to certain conditions. This is what Grealish negotiated with Aston Villa last season, and Guardiola highlighted it as a reason for the ease with which his transfer was completed.

A new contract would give Kane a significant pay rise (perhaps €110,000 per week) as a sweetener to stay one more year, in which time Nuno Espirito Santo would have a chance to either create a successful team or find alternatives to Kane.

City may still be prepared to wait for Kane, who will be 29 next summer — but possibly for a cheaper price.

If this happens, Guardiola has to consider signing a different striker or carrying on as he did for most of last season, when Aguero was a bit-part player. Using a false nine, or playing the misfiring Jesus up front did not prevent City from winning the Premier League and Carabao Cup and within touching distance of Champions League success.

The downside is that rivals Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United have all strengthened this season.

If City opt to meet Tottenham’s asking price, they could sweep all before them unless they have a catastrophic run of injuries to key players.

In that case, Levy has to decide how best to spend the money, and will be mindful of the mess he made with the windfall from Gareth Bale’s then world record transfer to Real Madrid in 2013.

Seven players arrived, with the exhortation that Spurs had sold Elvis and bought the Beatles. But only Christian Eriksen turned out to be a successful signing, and Levy will be determined to avoid making the same mistake again. €60m has already been earmarked for next summer when Cristian Romero’s loan from Atalanta will be made permanent at that fee.

Although more reinforcements are needed in defence and midfield, the priority will be replacing Kane. Targets include Dusan Vlahovic of Fiorentina and Lautaro Martinez of Inter, who may be reluctant to sell now that Romelu Lukaku has gone to Chelsea.

While Kane has been missing from pre-season friendlies, Heung-Min Son has stepped into a more central role, but the Korean is a very different forward to the England captain, and Santo would want a more traditional number nine to complete his strikeforce. So there are many possibilities, and a lot of them depend on big decisions that need to be made in the next fortnight or so. One thing is for sure.

If their talisman does leave Tottenham will no longer be “The Harry Kane team” as Pep memorably called them four years ago — and it could be Manchester City taking on that title.