Champions League draw analysis: Chelsea get the opposition they least wished to face

So who will be happiest and who will be concerned after Monday's Champions League last 16 draw. Daniel Storey has the answers

A Chelsea fan with a half-and-half Chelsea-Atletico Madrid scarf. Picture: PA

Borussia Monchengladbach v Manchester City

Manchester City should be guarded against complacency — we all remember Lyon last season — but there’s no escaping that they have landed the plumb draw.

Monchengladbach are eighth in the Bundesliga having won four of their 11 games and were hugely thankful for Inter’s inability to beat Shakhtar that saw them squeak into the knockout stages.

City began the season in haphazard form of their own, but have at least kept six consecutive clean sheets in all competitions. The two clubs met in the Champions League group stage in 2015 and 2016, City winning three and drawing the other fixture. It’s time for the ‘Can Pep Guardiola win the Champions League without Lionel Messi?’ hype train to begin again.

Lazio v Bayern Munich

Bayern have stuttered a little domestically this season, but they might have taken maximum points in their Champions League group had they not rested players against Atletico Madrid with top spot secured.

Their last defeat in this competition was a 3-1 defeat to Liverpool in March 2019 and they are favourites to retain their crown. Lazio may well reason that they have nothing to lose from a daunting tie, but their inability to beat either Club Brugge or Zenit St Petersburg away from home suggests a weakness on the road that Bayern will surely exploit. They have also only won one of their six home games in Serie A this season.

Atletico Madrid v Chelsea

Probably the one team that Chelsea wanted to face least. Frank Lampard’s side have often struggled to break down deep defences and in Diego Simeone they face the master of the art. Having topped their group, Chelsea will have hoped for one of the last-16s lesser lights but have been handed the toughest possible assignment of their potential opponents. But all is not lost. Atletico’s defensive record is prodigious in La Liga this season (four goals conceded in 11 matches), but they failed to beat Lokomotiv Moscow home or away in the group stage and had a negative goal difference over their six matches.

Having failed to reach the quarter-finals in two of the last three years, might Simeone focus on the league over Europe in a relentless spring?

RB Leipzig v Liverpool

An official banana skin for Liverpool. They will be favourites for the tie, but Leipzig have knocked out two English sides from the Champions League since the beginning of last season.

They dismantled Jose Mourinho’s Tottenham last season and recovered from a stunning 5-0 defeat at Old Trafford to qualify from Group H at Manchester United’s expense.

Much will depend on Liverpool’s defensive headaches. With Virgil van Dijk and Joe Gomez already ruled out, Jurgen Klopp will know that any other knocks to Joel Matip or Fabinho will leave him desperately short of means to defend against Leipzig’s fluid attacking line.

Porto v Juventus

Porto performed above expectations in Manchester City’s group, losing only at the Etihad. That game was also the only match in which Porto conceded, suggesting a defensive resilience that came as a shock to those who watched them concede 14 times in six group games last season. But there’s no doubt that Juventus will be a step up in class that should prove too much for Sergio Conceiçao’s side. Cristiano Ronaldo is desperate to win one more Champions League title before he retires and this season provides his most likely opportunity. In such circumstances, Ronaldo usually thrives.

Barcelona v Paris Saint-Germain

The tie of the round in terms of reputation, but on current and recent form there should only be one winner. Barcelona are in a state of emergency, eighth in La Liga and with civil war rumbling at the Camp Nou. Barcelona have reached one Champions League final in the last nine years and this is their worst team of that era.

But it’s Paris Saint-Germain. The French club have been haunted by Barcelona, winning one and losing four of their last five meetings in the competition. Even that thumping win in 2017 was merely a prelude for arguably the greatest comeback in Champions League history. Now it’s Neymar’s chance to dismantle his old club and expose the many defensive flaws that threaten to send a super club into relative ignominy.

Sevilla v Borussia Dortmund

Almost impossible to call with two months to wait. Borussia Dortmund sacked Lucien Favre after an embarrassing home defeat to Stuttgart; we know little of what to expect from interim coach Edin Terzic.

But Sevilla are equally hard to predict. They enjoyed an excellent group stage, beating Krasnodar and Rennes home and away, but were thumped by a second-string Chelsea team in their final match to cede top spot and top seeding. Goalscoring is the big problem: Sevilla have scored just 22 goals in 17 league and Champions League games this season.

Atalanta v Real Madrid

Possibly the tie of the round. Real Madrid are lurching between shambolic crises and impressive recovery, but the Champions League has always been their succour. Zinedine Zidane masterminded a great escape from a group-stage campaign that looked impossible with 15 minutes of their third game remaining.

Atalanta, meanwhile, are the most entertaining team in Europe. They can be baffling (winning none of their home games and all of their away games in the group stage is proof of that) but when they click they offer a sizeable challenge to even the most established of Champions League opponents.

Dates for the diary

Champions League first leg fixtures and dates

February 16: RB Leipzig v Liverpool, Barcelona v PSG.

February 17: Sevilla v Borussia Dortmund, Porto v Juventus.

February 23: Lazio v Bayern Munich, Atletico v Chelsea.

February 24: Borussia Monchengladbach v Man City, Atalanta v Real Madrid.

Champions League second leg fixtures and dates

March 9: Borussia Dortmund v Sevilla, Juventus v Porto.

March 10: PSG v Barcelona, Liverpool v RB Leipzig.

March 16: Real Madrid v Atalanta, Man City v Monchengladbach.

March 17: Bayern Munich v Lazio, Chelsea v Atletico.

Europa League Rd of 32 fixtures (first legs February 18, second legs February 25): 

Wolfsberg v Tottenham, Dynamo Kyiv* v Club Brugge*, Real Sociedad v Man Utd*, Benfica v Arsenal, Crvena Zvezda v AC Milan, Antwerp v Rangers, Slavia Praha v Leicester, Salzburg* v Villarreal, Braga v Roma, Krasnodar* v Dinamo Zagreb, Young Boys v Leverkusen, Molde v Hoffenheim, Granada v Napoli, Maccabi Tel-Aviv v Shakhtar Donetsk*, Lille v Ajax*, Olympiacos * v PSV Eindhoven.

*Entry via Champions League