Comment: What happens if FAI’s Stephen Kenny succession plan doesn’t work?

We should probably be grateful that there was a plan at all. John Delaney, a man who lurches between self-promotion and self-preservation, is hardly the obvious choice to plot a path to redemption for Ireland. With some organisations, silence persuades you there is some grand scheming going on behind closed doors. With the FAI, the suspicion is sometimes the opposite.

Having one eye on the present and the other on the future should be the right thing to do. Whether Mick McCarthy is the right man to lead Ireland in 2018 having been the right man 22 years ago is open to debate, but — in the lack of any standout, ready-made candidate — the FAI consider him a safe pair of hands.

In making Stephen Kenny the U21 coach, the FAI are aiming to both steel and protect a coach who really could be Ireland’s future. Kenny will work with a crop of players who will then progress with him to the senior team post-Euro 2020.

He will immerse himself in international football, a markedly different beast from the club game, and thus be better prepared for the far brighter spotlight that comes with the senior job.

But if the McCarthy-Kenny succession plan carries weight on paper, football is played on grass. If this is a solution from the FAI that tries to appease all parties, there is not enough good news to go around. The danger is that everybody is left feeling a little empty.

The first problem comes with McCarthy himself. He is a decent man, a loyalist and a fighter. His performance at Ipswich Town looks better with each passing defeat following his resignation. He gets on with the media, because he’s the master of a gruff soundbite.

For the FAI, McCarthy is reliability personified.

But McCarthy’s history hardly generates optimism. He left Ipswich because supporters were sick of the dreary football, even in mid-table, and he has encountered similar issues elsewhere.

If Kenny has made his name playing a pressing, passing, distinctly modern style at Dundalk, McCarthy’s stubborn pragmatism is the opposite. If the best way to prepare for one philosophy is to feed the players something entirely different for two years and have the U21s playing in an alternative style to the seniors, it’s a niche strategy.

This is certainly an unusual move, but with good reason. At Manchester City in 2016, Manuel Pellegrini struggled to motivate his players after Pep Guardiola’s summer arrival was announced on February 1.

At Chelsea last season, Antonio Conte lost his power over senior players having made his own exit strategy transparent.

Attempts to create long-term certainty can often create a short-term vacuum: ‘It doesn’t matter about impressing this guy, he won’t be around for long’.

There is a reason that football clubs — or national associations — do not usually plan two years in advance. The fallacy of the FAI’s plan is that it relies upon mediocrity.

What happens if McCarthy performs well below expectation; do they bring forward the schedule to put him out of his misery?

And what happens if he inspires Ireland to Euro 2020 qualification and success at that tournament? Sorry Mick, you know the drill. Could you shut the door on your way out?

How will Mick McCarthy feel if he does well and then he has to stand aside for Stephen Kenny in 2020? @corktod asked the question. Mick may head for China..... #rtesoccer pic.twitter.com/5tz4rzxPIX

— RTÉ Soccer (@RTEsoccer) November 25, 2018

The same is true of Kenny. If he flounders with the U21s, can he pull the plug on the masterplan or are Ireland tied in contractually to it?

And is the U21 job similar enough to the senior gig to offer substantial evidence of his ability to succeed at the latter anyway?

Surely if he is considered good enough in two years’ time on the strength of his CV now, he’s good enough to take over straight away?

Those are two sketchy paragraphs from a newspaper columnist. It is my job to answer questions more than ask them, and I’ve just asked five in no time at all.

But then that’s the point: A strategy that was intended to provide clarity has only succeeded in provoking further uncertainty.