Seeds of doubt grow for fourth-tier Ireland

As disappointment turned to dismay in the fall-out from Saturday’s missed opportunity against Scotland, the reality of Ireland’s decline was illustrated yesterday by confirmation of their fourth seeding in next month’s World Cup draw.

Failing to beat the Scots not alone put a massive dent in Ireland’s likelihood of reaching the enlarged European Championships next year but made the next campaign seem all the more arduous to navigate out of.

Only 13 nations, unlike the 24 heading to France, will qualify from the European section for the 2018 World Cup in Russia.

Fifa’s rankings are determined by results including friendlies and Ireland’s lowly position of 60th in the world places them amongst the fourth seeds that also includes Turkey, Slovenia, Israel, Norway, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Estonia and the climbers from this campaign, Faroe Islands.

Martin O’Neill will travel to the draw for those qualifying groups in St Petersburg on July 25 as Ireland manager, yet unsure if he’ll still be at the helm by the time that series commences in September 2016.

O’Neill and his assistant Roy Keane were, as John Delaney outlined at the outset, recruited to deliver qualification and the 60% chance the FAI chief executive last July put on that eventuality coming to fruition by the end of this campaign now appears to have been aspirational.

Looking up from fourth spot in the table is difficult enough for Irish fans to stomach in the present campaign, yet there’s no indication the outlook will be altered by the hand dealt to the FAI in six weeks’ time.

To demonstrate the dip in Ireland’s standing, we must go back to the draw for the 2008 European Championships – Stephen Staunton’s sole campaign in charge – for when they were in the fourth pot of seeds for a tilt at reaching a major tournament.

The FAI can only hope that the surge of Wales under Chris Coleman proves favourable. A consistent string of results has pushed the Gareth Bale-inspired Dragons to the top table of nations and they are one of nine countries Ireland could be drawn against from the upper echelons.

Should that 11% chance not transpire, then the Irish will have to tackle one from Germany, Spain, England, Portugal, Belgium, Netherlands, Romania or Italy (if they beat Portugal tonight, otherwise Croatia).

Pot Two, a place Ireland inhabited for the Euro 2016 draw, features some bullets which could well need dodging. France are certainly there alongside Switzerland, while Austria – who took five points from Ireland in the last series of qualifiers – sealed their place with victory over Russia on Sunday.

Ukraine, Serbia and our own group’s success story, Poland, are the teams to avoid from Pot Three and even Pot Five has some banana skins such as Albania and a side forever associated with Staunton’s downfall, Cyprus.

Barring a couple of flukes in the draw, the gloomy outlook engulfing the Irish international team won’t be brightened by the trail presented to Russia. That long drought from the 2002 showpiece shows no sign of ending.

Kevin Kilbane, part of that squad in Japan and Korea all of 13 year ago, believes until the pattern of buckling against their group rivals ceases, Ireland can expect to remain on the margins of international football in the foreseeable future.

“Our problem has not been winning games, simple as,” reasoned the 110-times capped former player yesterday as he launched the forthcoming Macron Galway Cup at NUIG.

“Scotland and Poland are no great shakes but we could only manage 1-1 draws against them at home. That’s just not good enough to qualify, even in a group which two of the nations automatically go to France.

“I think, of the three teams challenging Germany in the group, we probably have the better players. There was a fair of hype about the Scots in the run-up to Saturday but the game showed they came to get a draw.

“I don’t know why we can’t get that win. After starting the game well in the first half, Ireland went on the back foot after half-time and got punished.”

Meanwhile, the FAI have confirmed that John Delaney will restore the traditional post-AGM press conference at this year’s event in Sligo on July 18.

Delaney has committed to answering questions after the annual summit next month.