Test of stamina as final furlong looms

So it begins. It might not quite be the final furlong but the finishing line is just about visible and the runners and riders know the margin for error is slim. 

There is no silverware in this race, merely a place in an exclusive club and a truckload of cash. Such is the way of the modern game.

While the outcome of the Chelsea v Manchester City title battle looks increasingly inevitable, the identity of the two teams that will join the leaders in next season’s Champions League is far less clear.

Five points separate Manchester United in third and Liverpool in seventh. Part of what makes this five-way battle so intriguing is the fact all five contenders – United, Southampton, Arsenal, Tottenham and Liverpool – have legitimate grounds for optimism.

United, for all the criticism of their style, have lost just one of their last 15 Premier League games and have occupied a top-four spot since the 2-1 win at Arsenal on November 22.

Southampton have been a revelation all season while Arsenal, Tottenham and Liverpool all endured difficult first halves of the season but have found form simultaneously in recent months.

Liverpool’s credentials face a stern test against Southampton tomorrow in a game that, if not quite must-win, certainly falls into the must-not-lose category.

Defeat would leave Brendan Rodgers’ men seven points behind the Saints ahead of a run-in that includes home games against both Manchester sides and trips to Arsenal and Chelsea.

On the plus side for Liverpool, they travel tomorrow to a Southampton side that have won just once at home in 2015.

In addition, Daniel Sturridge’s return has given Liverpool’s attack a focal point they’ve so clearly lacked until now. They may be lowest placed of the five contenders but under Rodgers they traditionally finish seasons well. Only four of their 22 league defeats under the Antrim man have come after December.

The demands of the Europa League will test that record but winning that much-maligned competition now provides an alternative route to the Champions League if Liverpool fall short domestically.

Southampton’s sudden struggles at St Mary’s suggest a side starting to toil at such a high altitude.That assumption is somewhat misleading though as Ronald Koeman’s men have won their last four games on the road, including a 1-0 triumph at Old Trafford.

Maintaining such form will be tall order, however, as the Saints face trips to Stamford Bridge, Goodison Park, the Britannia and, on the final day, the Etihad in their final 13 games. On the plus side, home games against Crystal Palace, Burnley, Hull and Aston Villa fall into the winnable category if they sort out their St Mary’s form.

Louis van Gaal’s United have rarely convinced this season but manage to keep digging out results. However, of the five contenders United face the most hazardous fixture list.

Between March 15 and April 25 United face Tottenham at home, Liverpool away, Man City at home, Chelsea away and Everton away. If they survive that lot, United finish their Old Trafford campaign against Arsenal, a heavyweight showdown that could decide one or both sides’ fates.

History suggests Arsenal will finish in the top four. It’s what they always do. However, as United found out last season, just because it’s always happened in the past doesn’t mean it’ll always happen.

That said, not making the top four would represent failure on a grand scale given the strength in depth at Arsene Wenger’s disposal, particularly offensively.

The run-in looks relatively benign, with today’s trip to Crystal Palace the first of a quintet of very winnable league games before a vital home clash with Liverpool on April 4. The Gunners must also host Chelsea and travel to Old Trafford in their final 13 games but Wenger’s men should accumulate enough points elsewhere to qualify.

Tottenham have won 12 points from goals scored in the final five minutes of Premier League games this season, a testament to their fitness levels under Mauricio Pochettino.

Now, with the Europa League back, comes the ultimate test of their stamina. The suspicion remains that it will need an almost faultless run-in to make the top four, a tall order given they face trips to United and Southampton as well as a home game with Man City and, presuming they get past Fiorentina next Thursday, an energy-sapping European campaign that, like Liverpool, might just offer their best route to the Champions League.

Ultimately this five-way battle won’t be decided until the final weeks of the season. All five contenders have flaws, all five face some searching tests in the coming months. Only one thing is certain: five into two won’t go.