Make-or-break month for AVB

ANDRE VILLAS-BOAS, who has only been at Chelsea for 20 weeks after arriving as the prodigal son from Portugal and who has yet to make a real signing of his own, is in serious danger of being home again for Christmas.

The Chelsea boss admitted on Tuesday, following a miserable Carling Cup exit against Liverpool, that the month of December could decide his team’s plight, and ultimately his own, following a frustrating start to the campaign both at home and in Europe.

But he overlooked one crucial factor — a tie against Valencia next week.

For all the furore over Chelsea’s poor performance this week and memories of Premier League defeats against both Liverpool and Arsenal, it is traditionally the Champions League that determines how long a manager remains at Stamford Bridge; and Chelsea go into that fixture against Valencia knowing only victory or a goalless draw will ensure a place in the last 16 — anything else and it’s Thursday night in the Europa League from then on.

Common sense says the young Portuguese coach, who cost €15m in compensation payments when Chelsea took him from Porto, should be given time to get it right despite those concerns; after all the current team is made up almost entirely of players who were already at the club when he arrived or whose transfers were organised before he landed in west London.

But Villas-Boas only has to look at the history of his predecessors to know common sense plays absolutely no part in the decisions of owner Roman Abramovich, especially when it comes to his unrequited love affair with the Champions League.

The list of casualties goes something like this: Claudio Ranieri, sacked after losing the semi-finals of the Champions League; Jose Mourinho, sacked after drawing at home to Rosenborg in the Champions League when only 24,973 people turned up to watch; Avram Grant, sacked after losing the final of the Champions League; Carlo Ancelotti, sacked for failing to win the Champions League even though he won the Double in England.

Oh, and then there was Luiz-Felipe Scolari, sacked in February when Chelsea said “the results and performances of the team appeared to be deteriorating at a key time in the season.”

Worryingly for Villas-Boas, that description could so easily be applied to Chelsea’s current plight as they sit fifth in the Premier League and wait nervously for a match against Valencia that will decide their Champions League fate.

If there are two things Abramovich can’t stand, it seems, it is European failure and poor home performances; and right now Villas-Boas has combined both.

Chelsea have lost three of their last four matches at Stamford Bridge, a statistic that would have seemed almost impossible under Jose Mourinho who didn’t lose a single game at the Bridge in three years (well, unless you include a penalty shoot-out defeat to Charlton in the Carling Cup — which the Special One certainly didn’t).

So it may be Chelsea’s traditionally patient fans that truly hold the key to AVB’s survival — no wonder, then, that Villas-Boas has sent them an olive branch.

“At the moment at home we’ve just not been good enough,” he admitted. “I think we need to get our fans behind us when we play at home. We need to get the emotions right. I know, and you can feel, Stamford Bridge has become anxious about Chelsea playing at home, but we need their full support behind us. That’s the only way you can build the atmosphere to take us through this period. We need to make the most of the December fixtures. That is our challenge.”

Villas-Boas has already indicated he will ditch the diamond formation trialled against Liverpool in midweek and return to one up front against Newcastle at St James’ Park on Saturday — which means Fernando Torres back on the bench and Didier Drogba recalled. But even if he survives December, which also includes matches against Tottenham and Man City, there are more problems ahead in January. In that month Drogba and Kalou head for the African Cup of Nations, leaving misfiring Torres to face the music alone. It is by no means ideal but it’s a problem Villas-Boas would love to have; because the alternative is Christmas in Portugal and a long, long time to wonder what went wrong...