Survival of fittest in ‘final’

UN final sin titulo: a final in all but name.

That’s Johan Cruyff’s verdict on tonight’s clash at Camp Nou, and while there will be those who might quibble in Madrid, Manchester, Milan or Munich, it’s hard to argue that Barcelona against Arsenal could turn out to be the match of the tournament, made all the more intriguing by the Gunners’ one-goal advantage from the first leg.

We can no doubt expect some exhilarating football, but it is also a match that could eventually turn on the fitness or availability of key players.

No one in Barcelona has set much store by reports of an Arsenal injury crisis, although the chance of Robin Van Persie playing a part has surprised Cruyff. But as Barca’s guru says himself: “This is a big game and no player wants to miss it. If a theoretically first-choice player starts on the bench it doesn’t signify fear or an injury – it can be about keeping a bullet in the chamber to be able to change the course of the game.”

Conceivably, Barcelona might spring a surprise themselves but it seems certain that two key defenders will be missing, and that is a significant concern for Pep Guardiola.

Gerard Piqué is suspended, but the Barca manager had some hope that Carles Puyol might be available, especially as he apparently was able to train without pain on Saturday. But he has been out since January 18 and the doctors are evidently worried that he could aggravate a long-term problem.

Puyol is a big loss for Barcelona. In his own way he is as important to the side as Lionel Messi, not just because he can play right across the back line but as a talisman and leader.

All Barcelona’s defeats this season – against Hercules in the league and Betis in the cup, as well as against Arsenal – have come when Puyol was on the sidelines. He was also missing for all but a few minutes of the two drawn cup ties against Athletic Bilbao.

Barcelona’s recent form ought to give Arsenal a bit of hope for this game. The goal machine that devastated opponents in a record-breaking run of 16 straight wins is no longer functioning as smoothly. Barcelona have continued to dominate possession in all their games but have found it much harder to turn that dominance into goals.

In January they were averaging over three goals a game; since the start of February that’s fallen to under two.

Towards the end of matches, when they were used to finishing off demoralised and tired opponents, they have sometimes looked to be running on reserve tanks themselves. That was evident in the drawn game against Sporting Gijon last month and also on Saturday against Zaragoza. Although they have won their three league matches since the first leg, the last two wins have come by the narrowest of margins, their first back-to-back 1-0 wins in three years.

One reason for tiredness is that Barcelona’s constant pressing and movement high up the pitch can take a lot out of the players. Another is that they don’t have huge strength in depth, so key men have played a lot of matches, especially Messi.

Against Zaragoza, Guardiola decided once again to rest Sergio Busquets, as he has done before several big games, including the match at the Emirates. In addition, David Villa only played 25 minutes and Andrés Iniesta just the final five, as Barcelona ran down the clock. Guardiola has used those two more than anyone else and their lack of sharpness is probably the main reason why the flow of goals has become more of a trickle.

Tactically, Barcelona could approach this game slightly differently from usual. Against Valencia they experimented with a formation that had Busquets dropping into the back line with Javier Mascherano playing the holding role.

Busquets is very effective at centre-back – some think it may turn out to be his best position – and could play there alongside Eric Abidal, rather than the more usual, and weaker, Gabriel Milito. Alternatively, Busquets and Mascherano could be teamed up in a reinforced midfield.

Arsenal’s strength on the counter is a real concern, especially if Van Persie plays. “Zaragoza were able to mount two or three counters, with Arsenal you can’t expect any fewer,” says Cruyff. But he also believes the home team have a vital psychological edge.

“Arsenal have to deal with two things: Barca... and their own ghosts. There are many matches during a season, but few of them really are must-win. And that’s where they fail. Their most recent games are a proof: the final of the Carling Cup, last gasp defeat, and on Saturday they could have got within a point of Manchester United but could only draw.. (this) is one of those matches.”

But having beaten Barcelona once, maybe this time the Gunners have the belief that can prove the guru wrong.