Digging in for December

AS THE Premier League’s top five brace themselves for a hectic festive schedule, matches that could go a long way to deciding the destination of the title, statisticians are offering up a word of warning to current leaders Manchester United.

There’s an adage in football that the team top of the table at Christmas goes into the New Year with a huge psychological advantage en route to being crowned champions; but history suggests that like so many old wives tales, it doesn’t always stand up to close scrutiny.

In fact, statistics show that since the Football League was formed in 1888, 49 teams out of 111 who were top at Christmas went on to win the title, less than 50 per cent – and the figure for Premier League history is even worse with little more than a third of teams who were top on December 25 being crowned champions.

That figure should at least give Carlo Ancelotti’s Chelsea some hope as they head into December in second place after taking only four points from their last five league games, form that would suggest their dream of defending their crown is under serious threat.

The problem for Chelsea – who incidentally bucked the trend last season by leading the pack on Christmas Day and remaining top in May – is that their season seems to be crumbling around them just at the stage when it is most crucial to keep a clear head.

The club reacted angrily to Sunday newspaper reports that owner Roman Abramovich has been sounding out Barcelona’s Pep Guardiola as a replacement for Ancelotti, describing them as “total nonsense”. But the rumours continue to surface and however baseless some of them may be, it’s clear that not all is well behind the scenes at Stamford Bridge since the controversial sacking of Ray Wilkins, who will be followed out the door by Frank Arnesen at seasons end.

The problems on the pitch, where even Abramovich cannot be seen to interfere, are also acute; although surely their lack of goals will be addressed once Drogba fully recovers from malaria and Frank Lampard returns to action after 12 weeks on the sidelines following hernia surgery.

With captain John Terry due to return to training today after treatment on a trapped nerve, Chelsea could well be almost at full strength by the time December’s fixtures really turn nasty with a run of games against Tottenham, Manchester United and Arsenal all in a row – matches they really have to win to turn their season around.

Last year Chelsea took only nine points in December and still went on to lift the title, following it up with a perfect January, but this year the race is so tight you suspect they cannot afford to do the same and remain in contention, not when leaders United are rumbling through the gears and starting to reach top form.

Alex Ferguson’s side, who by his own standards have endured a tough start to the campaign, hit top form at the weekend with a 7-1 victory over Blackburn and remain unbeaten in the league so far – a remarkable achievement given some of their performances during that four-month run.

With Wayne Rooney fit and once again focused on football there must be every chance of a happy Christmas for United, and although three of their five games during December are away from home and the schedule includes games against both Chelsea and Arsenal, Ferguson’s men have more experience than anyone else of building a championship-winning season from a slow start.

Arsenal, incidentally, are at yet another crossroads after five years without a trophy; they remain in the title mix but morale has peaked and troughed so many times so far this season – from defeat against Spurs to victory at Villa Park in the last week alone – that when added to injury problems for Cesc Fabregas and a poor defensive record it’s easy to see why some critics have all but ruled them out.

The big question is whether Wenger’s side can find some consistency, and everything could hinge on the match against Chelsea on December 27, potentially the biggest match of the entire Christmas campaign and certainly one that will provide a gripping distraction to the never-ending plates of turkey sandwiches.

For Manchester City, too, the festive period has potential for a real points jamboree with three matches at home and away games at struggling West Ham and unpredictable Newcastle all looking winnable; while fellow dark horses Tottenham – who expect to have Michael Dawson back from long-term injury today – will feel they can become real contenders if they beat Chelsea on December 12.

That’s certainly the view of manager Harry Redknapp who has put his head above the parapet once more to insist his side are capable of finishing top and ending the domination of football’s so-called ‘big four’.

“I’m not saying we’re going to win it but we’ve got a chance,” he said. “Why not? It’s wide open.”

That’s the kind of statement which will be re-visited in January once the frantic Christmas schedule has been completed and thoughts turn (briefly) to the third round of The FA Cup. Statisticians stand by; it’s about to kick off.