Plenty at stake in Bayern and Inter’s game of numbers

BAYERN against Inter... Munich against Milan... Germany against Italy.

It has the ingredients of a classic confrontation, recording some great clashes of the past, even if the two managers are both foreigners and Inter’s starting line-up is unlikely to include a single Italian.

Although there may be echoes of that 4-3 thriller in Mexico City 40 years ago, or that dramatic 2-0 in Dortmund in the last World Cup — both games won by Italy in extra time — this match is more likely to be a tight affair, masterminded by two great tacticians.

Yet whoever comes out on top, there is more at stake than this season’s title. It’s a match that could represent a shift in the balance of power in European football.

Ever since the Champions League moved to its present format, three countries have enjoyed the privilege of having four clubs in the competition, based on the ranking published by UEFA before the start of each competition.

Country performance, leagues and individual clubs are all rated by UEFA to produce the coefficients that determine this ranking order, calculated on a five-year rolling basis.

England and Spain are comfortably out ahead — guaranteeing the Premier League and La Liga four clubs in the competition for several seasons to come at least.

By contrast, Italy and Germany are neck and neck. So close in fact that the outcome of tonight’s game might tip the balance — which would in theory reduce Italy to three entrants from the season after next and give Germany the ascendancy.

In practice it’s more complicated than that — because this being a World Cup year, the country rankings for both Italy and Germany are likely to change over the summer, depending on how they fare in South Africa.

As of now, however, if Bayern should win then Germany would be ahead, and if Inter win then Italy will just squeeze back in front of them.

It’s a matter of prestige — but obviously it’s also a matter of big business, and with Champions League participation worth upwards of €30 million that’s very big business for the top clubs, and for the leagues they play in.

When it comes to finance and business prospects, the contrast between the Bundesliga and Serie A is quite painful from the Italian point of view.

Attendances in Germany are at a record high, and have doubled over the past 10 years, while crowds in Italy are close to an all-time low. Revenues from shirt sponsorship are higher in Germany than anywhere else. Income is at an all-time high.

Even though some German clubs have debt problems — and debt is growing — they are in a much better position to weather the current financial crisis than the Italians.

Compare Bayern with as turnover of €290 million, and profit of €2.5 million, with Inter’s €197 million turnover — and €154 million loss. Inter trail Bayern when it comes to gate receipts and income from marketing. Their only advantage is income from TV.

While Germany has great stadiums, built or updated for the last World Cup, Italian clubs are playing in grounds which are unmodernised, uncomfortable and in some cases unsafe.

Italy lost the chance of hosting the 2012 European Championships partly for that reason, and the government is now belatedly addressing the stadium issue with subsidies designed to secure their chances of the 2016 tournament.

Problems of crowd violence and corruption have also been addressed, but they still lurk beneath the surface.

It’s almost exactly four years since the Calciopoli match-fixing scandal hit the headlines and the web of corruption began to be exposed. Some of those involved were banned from football — (although not for life) but even now the criminal proceedings are dragging on in a Naples courtroom, with no sign of a conclusion.

Germany has also not been immune to match-fixing, but was quick to clamp down and send those responsible to gaol. By contrast, most Italians believe that Luciano Moggi and his friends are most unlikely to see the inside of a prison — if only because they have a lot of dirt stored away that might implicate other people.

That fourth Champions League spot would be a deserved prize for the Bundesliga in 2011-12. But whether Bayern win or lose tonight, German football will continue to be in robust health. Just look at the number of youngsters coming through, among them Muller, Badstuber, Alaba and Contento, all given their chance this season by Louis Van Gaal.

By contrast, this is an uneasy occasion for Italian football. One of Inter’s young Italians might get on the pitch tonight, and this would be some occasion for Balotelli to redeem his image. But neither is travelling to South Africa. Santon is injured, Balotelli is a tantrum away from disaster. Inter are essentially a South American side, with a Portuguese manager who is packing his bags for Madrid.

Should Inter win their fans will kiss the tarmac at Malpensa airport and party as never before beneath the giant screens in the Piazza del Duomo. But Italian football will require more than the Cup with Big Ears to recover its vitality.