Can England win the World Cup?

No, says Liam Mackey:

THE main reason why England won’t win the World Cup is that all across Germany this month there are better teams playing better football, one of whom can and will.

But even if there weren’t, even if England came up against all the worst teams in the history of the competition, they would ultimately find one opponent they simply couldn’t master – themselves.

It seems to be hard-wired into their football culture, this self-destructive gene which manifests itself in things like managerially tomfoolery, star players who go missing and a team which invariably adds up to less than the sum of its parts. Oh, and plain old bad luck.

The horrible sight in Cologne of poor Michael Owen battling against the inevitable on the sideline, even as his team-mates took the game to Sweden and Frank Lampard fired yet another long-ranger over the top, perfectly summed up the way things can go from good to awful for England without even bothering to stop at bad.

Here, right at the start of their best 45 minutes of the tournament so far, was a grim omen for more troubled times ahead, not only, as it turned out, in the 90 minutes itself but, you have to suspect, in the tournament as a whole.

With doubts over the fitness of both Owen and Wayne Rooney long before the tournament began, the manager’s decision to include Theo Walcott and leave out Jermain Defoe, baffling enough at the time, now begins to look like a match applied to a very short fuse. Rooney’s miraculous recovery from injury — even if he is still manifestly short of match fitness — has bought Eriksson the ghost of a chance, but with the fuse hissing merrily, the gamble still looks like blowing up in his face, perhaps even as early as Sunday when England play Ecuador in Munich.

There can be no guarantee Defoe would have delivered, of course, but at least it would have been a horses for courses option. Instead, if they aren’t to play just one up front, England will look either to Peter Crouch and Wayne Rooney to instantly establish a telepathic combination, or else someone like Steven Gerrard will have to be pushed up as a makeshift striker. (And no, I haven’t overlooked Walcott, although Sven may very well have, which begs the question of why he was ever included in the first place, other than as an attempted piece of ‘good news’ management at a time when all the media gloom merchants could talk about was Rooney’s metatarsal). But England don’t need injury catastrophes to make life difficult for themselves. Against Paraguay, they got an early goal and then, as an addled radio commentator once famously put it, “suddenly and gradually” lost their way. Against Trinidad & Tobago, they only found the right route with ten minutes remaining. And against, Sweden, they managed a whole 45 minutes cruising along the autobahn, before promptly ploughing into a ditch.

Not even American tourists relying on road signs in rural Ireland could better the cream of England’s footballers at so spectacularly losing their way.

And this is not just bad luck. The problem, in part, is caused by the critical conundrum to which there has still been no satisfactory answer – how do you fit two attack-minded midfielders in the centre of the park? And it’s a problem which has only been exacerbated by England’s having to fly on one wing, as a result of David Beckham’s unannounced retirement from international football, other than to put in the odd personal appearance for a cross or a corner.

After the first two games, I was inclined to indulge him, if only on the basis that even an occasional telling delivery could be of critical significance for a team otherwise bereft of attacking gambits.

But after Sweden…

In fairness to England, the absence of Gary Neville has been telling, with no-one to supply overlapping width on the right, when Becks goes for one of his little wanders into the middle.

Will Wayne save the nation? Will Theo emerge as Boy Of The Rovers? Will Becks ever be found alive? These questions and more will be answered in Sunday’s eagerly awaited episode of the World Cup’s most popular soap.

All things considered, and given that they do perverse like nobody else, it’s probably safe to say that England will beat Ecuador – in a penalty shoot-out. But they won’t win the World Cup, no way.

Even Murphy the dog says so, and he knows more than me.

***

Yes, says Allan Prosser

QUESTION: How do you make an Irishman laugh?

Answer: Tell him England are going to win the World Cup

OK, so it hasn’t been the best of starts in Germany 2006, but in 40 years of hurt I can remember several which have been a damn sight worse. 1990 for example when England only went through to the knockout stage by beating Egypt 1-0. Then they started playing. And, let’s face it, should have won the tournament. Or 1986 (0-0 against Morocco anyone?)

Even 1966 (we won it that year you know) was heralded by an excruciating goal-less draw against Uruguay and a swift reshuffle by Alf Ramsey which involved dropping England’s only world class goalscorer Jimmy Greaves.

So the point is . . . England are traditionally slow starters. And since when has the team which started best always won a knockout tournament? OK, Brazil in 1970. I will give you that. But certainly not West Germany in 1974 (that was going to be Holland’s World Cup wasn’t it?).

Argentina stuttered through the 1978 group stages with late goals, and a defeat by Italy; Italy were a shambles (three poor draws) in the opening rounds of 1982. And since then a main characteristic of the winners has been a relatively easy group.

And here’s the thing. England’s better performances in World Cups (1966, 1986, 1990) have all occurred when they have been forced into tactical change through injury or lack of form. Through luck rather than judgement England have almost stumbled on their best formation. It’s not 4-4-2, it’s 4-1-4-1 with the following personnel:

Robinson; Carragher, Ferdinand, Terry, Cole; Hargreaves, Beckham, Gerrard, Lampard, Joe Cole; Rooney.

If only Beckham could pick up a niggling injury for a fortnight it would force Eriksson to pick Lennon, give the captaincy to Terry (where it should have been for the past 12 months) and then the team starts to look quite tasty.

England will beat Ecuador. I simply cannot see their goal threat Augustin Delgado getting the better of Terry and Ferdinand, and that will lead them into a quarter-final against either Portugal or Holland. And at the quarter-final stage it will be a very different England mentality to the pragmatic game they have pursued in the group round. They are capable of overcoming both the Dutch and the Portuguese. Their potential semi-final opponents could be Spain, Italy or Brazil and in a strange Donnie Darko/Mad World moment I would choose to play Brazil, and in particular their goalkeeper Dida. England are going to produce at least one good performance in this World Cup. Let it be then.

For the final it would be England v Germany or Argentina. And if there are two teams that England can really get it up for, it’s them. So can they win it? Of course they can. Embrace have told me so in their World Cup song — “it’s gonna be our time”.

Rugby World Cup; the Ashes; Germany 2006. Why not?

Here are five reasons to be cheerful:

1. Joe Cole: Quite one of the best moments of the World Cup was listening to Messrs Brady, Dunphy and Giles hastily trying to reverse their pre-match condemnation of Joe Cole after his MoM performance against Sweden. Easily England’s best player over the three opening games.

2. Wayne Rooney: Great player, and one who can, literally, lead the attack by himself.

3. Strength of character: Gerrard, Carragher, Terry, Lampard. Four of the most combative players in the world.

4. The draw: If the tournament goes to form Germany will meet Argentina in one of the quarter-finals. Either way England win ... and they will avoid the victor of that match in the semis.

Frank Lampard: Rarely goes more than three games without scoring. Sunday would be good.

Five reasons to be fearful:

1. Paul Robinson: Has he caught a single contested cross?

2. David Beckham: He stays fit and keeps his place. The Beckham question is Sven’s last great test. He will fail it.

3. Wayne Rooney: If he picks up another injury then it really is Goodnight Vienna. England has been resounding to the sounds of scaffolds being built ever since Sven selected Theo Walcott for his squad.

4. Penalties: Enough said.

5. Ashley Cole: Doesn’t look fit. Facing Robben and Van Persie could stretch him.