Newcastle count the cost of Euro failure
The Magpies lost on penalties to Partizan Belgrade to miss out on a place in the lucrative group phase, which guarantees at least six further matches in the competition.
Stan Lock, an analyst for Brewin-Dolphin Securities, estimates the club will lose between £8m and £10m just for not reaching the first group phase never mind the added riches of making further progress as well as fringe benefits such as bigger sponsorship deals and increased gate receipts. Newcastle United plc's market value fell by more than £7m yesterday from £53m last night to £45.7m as shares fell 14% down 5p to 31.5p.
Bobby Robson's current squad were not good enough to reach the Champions League, and now Lock believes they could be stuck in a vicious circle because they cannot offer top-quality players the carrot of appearing in Europe's most prestigious club competition to boost the squad.
"The good players are already with clubs in the Champions League, so why go to Newcastle?
"They're not in the Champions League and that's where all the best players want to play. As for signing any more big-name players this season forget it. They can't afford it. This has hurt the club tremendously. They must be so down and I wouldn't be surprised if this affects them in the remainder of the season."
Lock believes the loyalty of Newcastle's fans means they should still pack St James' Park to its 52,193 capacity every week but insists a second-successive failure to reach the Champions League group stage will mean an end to big-name signings and could force them to sell off well-paid players already on their books.
"Of course, they can't go on spending as they have if they miss out again. The money isn't coming in and you can't just keep borrowing."
Newcastle will now go into the draw for the first round of the UEFA Cup, but Lock insisted: "for top Premiership clubs, that's failure.
"Being in the UEFA Cup for one season is not that much of a disaster, although it depends how far they go of course.
"But at the highest level, reaching the UEFA Cup is just not good enough. Aside from the money, the prestige of the Champions League is phenomenal you only have to look at how important it was for Rangers and Celtic to get through.
"This is what Newcastle were fighting for in the Premiership all last season and now they have gone out in qualifying. That will really, really hurt."
Shares in Borussia Dortmund also plunged as much as 16% in heavy volumes yesterday after the German's defeat by Club Bruges dashed its hopes of a place in the Champions League.
"This is a disaster for Borussia Dortmund," said Paul Sibianu, an analyst at WGZ-Bank.
"It means that the club misses out on 15m in revenues."
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