Ireland unlikely to beat the odds this time against Black Ferns

New Zealand's Jorja Miller celebrates. Pic: Ben Birchall/PA Wire

There is a scenario this Sunday whereby Ireland would leap three places up the world rankings and into second spot.

How likely is that? A million to one. New Zealand would have to be beaten with 15 points to spare, Canada would need to lose by a similar margin to Scotland, and South Africa would have to take care of the French.

Still, the fact that Scott Bemand’s side are within mathematical reach of such elevated status on the ladder is testament to the strides taken by a team that didn’t even make the last World Cup held in 2022.

Advances on and off the pitch have been enormous in a very short period of time but this last Pool C game against the world champions, and a side gunning for Ireland after a shock WXV1 defeat to them last year, will be a truer marker of where they stand.

Let’s be blunt here. Ireland haven’t kicked on as might have been expected since that win over the Black Ferns in Vancouver. They let slip a chance against France, got pumped by England after a great half-hour and lost to the Scots.

Wins over Japan and Spain in Northampton in recent weeks were a mix of good and must-do-better. Conceding seven tries across those two games has to be a concern when Portia Woodman-Wickliffe and Jorja Miller are in the other shed.

“It's [about] not isolating their players as a whole,” said co-captain Edel McMahon. “New Zealand deserve their respect but we deserve respect as an Irish squad as well, [given] what we've produced and how we've performed over the last two years.”

Head Coach Scott Bemand. Pic: Ben Brady/Inpho

The tournament holders have named a team and squad bordering on their best. They have revenge in their nostrils and a top-place pool finish in their sights that would almost certainly afford an easier quarter-final and avoid England until the final.

“I’m sure it’s one of those games that will go down to the wire,” said Bemand.

The bookies say otherwise with New Zealand almost 30-point favourites. That reflects the scale of the task ahead for a side that pitches up again without key forward Aoife Wafer, as well as Dorothy Wall and Erin King (both long-term injuries), Enya Breen and Fiona Tuite.

Four of that five are forwards. That sort of bleed has to have an effect.

A huge occasion beckons in front of a 31,800-capacity stadium that has sold well and should be dominated by green. Some of the squad got a taste of it this week when taking saunas and chatting to people with tickets and a sliver of Irish heritage ready to cheer them on.

Fans were flooding into Gatwick from back home by Friday.

The game as a contest may not match that sense of anticipation, but this is not D-Day. Not yet. Wafer, Tuite and Breen might all be fit for a last-eight tie that, should they lose here, would bring them face to face with France.

Then again, no-one expected them to win 12 months ago either.