Questions linger as Leinster go to the well yet again

URC SEMI-FINAL: Leinster go head-to-head with Glasgow Warriors in the URC semi-final with Glasgow hoping for back-to-back titles while Leinster are in search of silverware that has eluded them over the last few seasons. Pic: Sam Barnes/Sportsfile

Perception is everything. As of Friday afternoon, Leinster had ‘only’ sold 15,000 tickets for this BKT URC semi-final against Glasgow Warriors at the Aviva Stadium. This on the back of a crowd under 13,000 for last week’s quarter-final at the same venue.

Here, goes the theory, is proof positive of a hangover among fans who had their heart set on a Champions Cup final date in Cardiff and only to be denied by that sensational Northampton Saints performance.

Here, too, is claimed evidence of a general fatigue among a paying public that has been forking out money for home knockout game after knockout game across two competitions for donkey’s years, and with no reward at the end of it since 2021.

So, some context. The hope is that Leinster will play in front of in and around 19,000 punters in Ballsbridge this time. That would be their second biggest URC playoff attendance in the six they have played since the new tournament succeeded the PRO14.

The one bigger crowd was for Munster’s win in 2023.

“It’s an improvement on previous years,” said Leo Cullen who has urged supporters to get behind the team while recognising wider economic forces at play. “I don’t know if anyone saw Crusaders against Reds this morning, in terms of the crowd, it looked brutal.” 

Debate this as we may, the scoreboard provides figures that brook no argument. Win here and Leinster will be 80 minutes from a first trophy in four years and a chance to dilute the opprobrium that has come their way lately.

They go out for this one without four of the dozen players named in Andy Farrell’s British and Irish Lions squad in May. Hugo Keenan, like Garry Ringrose and Tadhg Furlong, has picked up a calf injury while Josh van der Flier’s issue is a hamstring.

None are said to be long-term issues – there is certainly no sense of their touring spots being at risk - but Leinster were already without longer-term absentees in captain Caelan Doris, Robbie Henshaw and Will Connors.

Even a squad like theirs will suffer for all that.

Glasgow have their own holes to fill with the Fagerson brothers, Zander and Matt, unavailable, as well as Jack Dempsey, key centre Huw Jones and half-a-dozen others, but they look re-energised for their last eight defeat of the Stormers.

Cullen has noted the visitors’ decision to bring in Adam Hastings, a ten noted for his kicking game, which, allied to a weather forecast that promises some heavy rain, could point to a tactical, cagey affair if there is no early and clear separation on the board.

The Warriors outscored the Stormers by five tries to two in Scotsoun eight days ago despite having less possession and only 35% territory, and Cullen noted their ability to ‘push boundaries’ with the concession of 16 penalties against just four.

Leinster didn’t come out of their own quarter-final, against the Scarlets in Dublin, with anything like the same bounce - quite the opposite - but they did show signs of adapting their approach to the vagaries of knockout rugby.

Time and again we have seen the province look to turn the screw by kicking penalties to the corner so it was notable how Sam Prendergast opted to keep the scoreboard ticking over with penalties on 36, 66 and 74 minutes.

The head coach also touched on the need to “adapt” if the game gets sticky down the stretch. To play the referee, the opposition and the conditions. And to ignore all the noise that has built up around the team and the club in recent weeks.

Not just the hand-wringing over that Saints loss and recent form, but the prospect of that Lions tour down the road for so many of their number, and the Ireland tour to Georgia and Portugal for another dozen of them.

Leinster are still double-digit favourites with some odd makers, but this feels closer than that. Glasgow are the reigning champions, after all, and they lifted the trophy last year on the back of a semi-final win in Ireland and a decider eked out in South Africa.

For all that, the focus here must be on Leinster. Is there still heart and momentum enough in them to shake off the torpor of the last month and claim a home final seven days down the road against the Bulls or the Sharks?

That is the question.

“There is a genuine excitement about it, playing again,” said Cullen in his missive for the troops. “We know the stakes are high. It’s great. Where would you want to be at this time of year? What else would you want to be doing?” 

LEINSTER: J O’Brien, T O’Brien, J Osborne, J Barrett, J Lowe, S Prendergast, J Gibson-Park, A Porter, D Sheehan, T Clarkson, J McCarthy, J Ryan, R Baird, S Penny, J Conan.

Replacements: R Kelleher, J Boyle, R Slimani, RG Snyman, M Deegan, L McGrath, R Byrne, C Frawley.

GLASGOW WARRIORS: J McKay, K Steyn, S Tuipulotu, T Jordan, K Rowe, A Hastings, G Horne, J Bhatti, G Hiddleston, F Richardson, A Samuel, S Cummings, E Ferrie, R Darge, H Venter.

Replacements: J Matthews, R Sutherland, S Talakai, M Williamson, J Mann, M Duncan, S McDowall, J Dobie.

Referee: A Piardi (FIR).