If Ireland stay true to themselves against Wales, they will not be stopped
WALES NEXT: Jack Conan and Tadhg Beirne at the Ireland captain's run. Pic Credit: Dan Sheridan, Inpho.
Ireland continue their pursuit of excellence today knowing that for all the potential rewards of a third straight win in this Guinness Six Nations campaign, they face a battle against a raw Wales side intent on bringing the chaos to Aviva Stadium.
The odds of Warren Gatland’s young side, narrow losers to both Scotland and England so far, causing an upset here are so heavily stacked against them that it would be remarkable to witness anything but an 18th consecutive home win for Andy Farrell’s men today and with that the matching of England's record of 11 successive Six Nations victories.
Indeed an expectant, sell-out Aviva crowd prepared to merely sit back and enjoy the show - as has been the case on so many of these supposed non-marquee Test matches in Dublin - is perhaps a major potential obstacle to their national team’s desire for constant improvement.
Farrell’s only home defeat as head coach, against Antoine Dupont’s France in 2021, is so long ago that complacency may have set in among the paying supporters yet both he and captain Peter O’Mahony understand the fallacy of trusting in either the bookmakers or public opinion on such occasions.
Ireland have seized on the words of Gatland’s trusted lieutenant Rob Howley and his promise to bring chaos to Ireland’s search for order with Farrell on Thursday by warning his players to expect a war of attrition against the Welsh in addition to the visitor’s attempts to get in Irish faces from the first whistle and knock the defending champions out of their comfort zone.
“We obviously know what they've been talking about,” Farrell added, “coming out of the blocks and causing chaos and we know it's going to be a fight, we know they're going to make it as tough as possible for us.
"But what we always concentrate on is ourselves and making sure that we put our game to the match, whoever it is that we're playing.
"We have full respect in regard to what Wales are going to bring because they're always unbelievably hard to beat and we expect them to be chomping at the bit. The two performances that they had, they could be coming here with two wins and no losses so we know exactly what we're up against.”
With Gatland also targeting stand-in full-back Ciaran Frawley, who replaces injured regular Hugo Keenan and urging his players to be brave in their decision-making, Ireland can certainly expect a feisty opponent this afternoon and O’Mahony, returning to the fray having sat out the 36-0 round two win over Italy 13 days ago for a landmark 50th Six Nations appearance, yesterday urged his squad to front up to face the expected challenge.
"Look, I think we've got to get our set-piece firing. I don't think it matters who it's against at the moment, you've got to get your set-piece going,” the skipper said.
"You've got to stop their momentum, they play with a game that's based around a physical confrontation, big ball carriers around the corner trying to win the race around the corner.
"It's always a physical encounter and rugby is a physical game, but particularly against Welsh teams and that's been the way since I've started playing against them and it hasn't changed to date.
"They're always a big, physical team and the basics of the game, he's (Gatland) always hard on that and big on that so they're areas we certainly have to get off to a good start on.”
Ireland’s lack of a World Cup hangover following their 28-24 quarter-final exit to New Zealand last October has been underlined by fast starts.
Having gone 13-0 down to the All Blacks in Paris, they have created winning positions in their first two games of this championship with strong opening quarters against both France and Italy and they have seen the importance of another one today given the meal Scotland made of closing out a 27-0 half-time lead in Cardiff in round one.
Wales scored four unanswered tries that day to lose 27-26 but then failed to score in the second half last time out at Twickenham in a frustrating 16-14 defeat to England.
And if O’Mahony’s message about a watertight set-piece is realised that could spell further problems for the visitors whose lineout was terrible against the Scots, losing six on their own throw at the Principality Stadium, and scrum has creaked to the extent they are operating at a 63.64 win percentage compared to Ireland’s 81.25 per cent.
Repeat performances in either department could well prove fatal to their chances of a first win in Dublin since 2012.
Ireland dare not be complacent, yet if they stay true to themselves and play to their collective capabilities they do not look like they will be stopped.
• Match referee Andrea Piardi will make his Six Nations debut by taking charge of today’s Ireland v Wales fixture, the first match in the Championship to be refereed by an Italian. Piardi’s first and only previous Test was to oversee Georgia's historic win over Wales in November 2022.
C Frawley (Leinster); C Nash (Munster), R Henshaw (Leinster), B Aki (Connacht), J Lowe (Leinster); J Crowley (Munster), J Gibson-Park (Leinster); A Porter (Leinster), D Sheehan (Leinster), T Furlong (Leinster); J McCarthy (Leinster), T Beirne (Munster); P O’Mahony (Munster) – captain, J van der Flier (Leinster), C Doris (Leinster).
R Kelleher (Leinster), C Healy (Leinster), O Jager (Munster), J Ryan (Leinster), R Baird (Leinster), J Conan (Leinster), C Murray (Munster), S McCloskey (Ulster).
C Winnett (Cardiff); J Adams (Cardiff), G North (Ospreys), N Tompkins (Saracens), R Dyer (Dragons); S Costelow (Scarlets), T Williams (Cardiff); G Thomas(Ospreys), E Dee (Dragons), K Assiratti (Cardiff); D Jenkins (Exeter Chiefs) – captain, A Beard (Ospreys); A Mann (Cardiff), T Reffell (Leicester Tigers), A Wainwright (Dragons).
R Elias (Scarlets), C Domachowski (Cardiff), D Lewis (Harlequins), W Rowlands (Racing 92), M Martin (Cardiff), K Hardy (Scarlets), I Lloyd (Bristol Bears), M Grady (Cardiff).
Andrea Piardi (Italy)
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