Ronan O'Gara's verdict: For New Zealand, the waves will crash a lot higher and faster now

When Ireland faced the All Blacks in my time, we convinced ourselves that they had the same number of legs and arms as we had, that they were mortal and beatable.

IN CONTROL: All Blacks full-back Beauden Barrett stretching before New Zealand training on Thursday. Pic: Dan Sheridan, Inpho.

WERE I to suggest around here that France and South Africa may not be the biggest show in town this weekend, the natives would bypass the interrogation and go direct to the folk in the white coats.

France is about to move to a whole new level of frenzy Sunday night for the Springbok quarter-final at the Stade de France, the personification of a knife-edge tie. How do you call it? That depends on what corner of the La Rochelle dressing room you perch yourself in. Raymond Rhule and Dillan Leyds are convinced South Africa’s line speed, daunting size, chop tackles and pressure game will suffocate French flair. 

The French quarter sees their demolition of Italy, the attacking firepower at their disposal, the fact that they have eschewed the de-possession game to some extent and are again relying on the fact that they just can’t help themselves with the ball as reliable evidence of their superiority. Damien Penaud is the form back of the tournament, Antoine Dupont is back and as long as Mathieu Jalibert stays healthy, France look irresistible.

One doesn’t like to veer into the realm of ‘if my aunt had etc etc’, but if Jalibert goes down after ten minutes, France will move their established 15, Tomas Ramos, from full back to out-half and bring in Melvyn Jaminet at 15. I am biased for sure, but there’s a European Cup-winning ten who won’t make the 23 in Antoine Hastoy, and not only is that a mistake for me, it’s massive advantage to South Africa.

There may have been two games back-to-back at a Rugby World Cup that have fired the imagination like Saturday and Sunday night will, but I don’t remember them. Both Ireland-New Zealand and France-South Africa are ‘finals’ in a real and status sense. It is unimaginably depressing that two of the four will be flying home on Sunday while Borthwick, Gatland (or Cheika) will be prepping for a semi-final.

Jeez.

The fact that Mack Hansen and James Lowe have been named to start for Ireland may have dulled people’s senses regarding the absence again of Robbie Henshaw and Keith Earls. Henshaw’s injury has propelled Bundee Aki into the role of key linchpin now against the All Blacks on Saturday night. If the man of the moment went down – and these things are less a possibility than a probability in terms of injury - Jimmy O’Brien would presumably come in at 13, Garry Ringrose moving to 12. Now doesn’t that look a very different Ireland team all of a sudden. At least from the outside, looking in.

It is a broadly held view that while the All Blacks retain a strong starting XV, their options off the bench are not as impactful as before. And yet, that could be true for each of the remaining hopefuls. We have lauded Andy Farrell for his ‘next one up’ philosophy but he has also been very impressive in launching players on a confidence trajectory. From last Sunday, management has been prepping Jimmy O’Brien, setting him up to succeed. He was told probably that morning, get yourself ready, you’re off the bench next Saturday night.

Nevertheless, the absence of Henshaw and Earlsie certainly lessens the options. If Ireland lost two backs in the opening half against New Zealand, it’s into the deep end for some fairly inexperienced operators.

For all that, if Ireland’s players show anything like the dexterity that Jamison Gibson Park displayed against Scotland in terms of desire, smarts and adaptability, then they will resolve almost any problem.

Both for James Lowe’s opening try, and for Dan Sheehan’s, the graft and craft of Mack Hansen and Gibson-Park respectively were truly exceptional. And that’s not the final time in this column I reach for superlatives on Ireland. For ten minutes, Scotland pounded Ireland, but the defensive wit and will was hugely impressive. When you dovetail that with a blistering accuracy with the ball, then you are moving into the realm of exception, not the norm.

NEW Zealand’s attack, if it clicks, is extremely dangerous, that must be said. Their front five can play ball, the players understand the importance of set piece, a phase game, a kicking game. But have they enough time with their hands over the naked flame since the opening night against France? That’s the imponderable until 8pm on Saturday. Is is realistic to replicate the thumping heart-rate they will experience against Ireland when Namibia, Italy and Uruguay are at the other end of the pitch? The waves are going to be crashing an awful lot higher and faster on Saturday night.

Technically, New Zealand get it. They got schooled in the summer of 2022 by Ireland. I was looking back at tapes of the series in New Zealand and an Ireland try from a midfield scrum in the third test where the All Blacks over-folded – it betrayed a fundamental lack of understanding there of what needs to be done defensively. With Joe Schmidt’s detail and other smart people around Ian Foster, that will surely be resolved, but ultimately I come around to the same conclusion that Ireland’s phase attack will pose too much trouble.

You are not talking about average opposition now. Ireland are excellent, have put an exceptional run of seventeen consecutive test wins together. Only excellent sides do that.

When your brain is formulated to coach against them (or at least Leinster), you focus on potential weaknesses, but then you step away and see the totality of what they’ve become. Some of the rugby Ireland play is magnificent.

If Ireland get their detail razor-sharp and accurate – like Leinster did in the opening phase against La Rochelle in the Champions Cup final - then Ireland could be 14-0 up early doors in front of 60,000 Irish supporters. I don’t see a way back for New Zealand from that.

And it’s glib to say, well La Rochelle came back, because for all the lazy comparisons, Leinster are not this Ireland – O’Mahony, Hansen, Aki, Henderson, Beirne, Murray, Crowley, Crowley, Bealham even make them an entirely different proposition. There are too many good ‘other’ players to factor in now. To see Ireland in blue terms is a seriously narrow-minded way of looking at the range of their abilities.

Three of their number might have been All Blacks, but weren’t deemed to be good enough once up a time. When Ireland used face the New Zealand in my time, we convinced ourselves that they had the same number of legs and arms as we had, that they were mortal and beatable. They won’t say it publicly now, but perhaps some New Zealanders will seek succour from the fact that Lowe, Hansen and Gibson-Park didn’t make the Super Rugby grade at home back then. That perception fails to understand how much they have prospered under their provincial and national coaching and management teams in Ireland.

Where Ireland may have an advantage is at prop, where Porter and Furlong are better than de Groot and Lomax. The back row will be a bun fight and the All Blacks have three serious second rows. Ireland will need to keep Sexton active for as much of the game clock as they can. New Zealand will be doing all they can to sit him down early. Both know that Ireland have a far greater chance of advancing to a semi-final if he’s on the pitch. That’s reality.

An All Black player at a World Cup is a serious beast but this Ireland, this special project that has discarded so many of the old tropes of gallant losses, functions differently to anything I’ve seen. The quarter-final impediment is not a thing. Beating New Zealand and staying in France is the thing.

The hangover for the losers this weekend will be brutal. Will Skelton dragged his considerable frame back into La Rochelle’s set up this week. Australia out before the knockouts, and their skipper hobbled out of the tournament with a calf injury. A sore and sorry man. It wasn’t in Australia’s strategy to be knocked out early so in that respect, their players will need the same decompression time as the French, Irish or South Africans once their tournament is done.

The Top 14 resumes in a fortnight, October 29th, for La Rochelle at home to Castres. Mentally and well as physically, players coming back to their clubs after the World Cup may need the better part of a month before they are ready to put it all back on the line again. The come down is brutal and there is a delicate balance to be struck with players between recuperation and the need for results in the short term. We are 1-3 so far, so another defeat or two would put us on the back foot.

Though I am not convinced Will Skelton wants to hear too much about that now.