Ireland have the emotional and rugby intelligence to beat Scotland

ALL SET: Dan Sheehan during Ireland's captain's run at the Stade de France in Paris. Pic: INPHO/Dan Sheridan

Forget the permutations, shut out the Scottish bravado. Ireland have more than enough of what it takes to see off their Celtic cousins at Stade de France Saturday night and move onto next weekend’s World Cup quarter-finals.

It will not be easy of course, and the worriers among Ireland’s growing army of supporters have justifications for pre-match nerves, this is a match-up of two top-five rugby nations after all. Yet while this final Pool B fixture has plenty of potential pitfalls for the world number one side and 2023 Grand Slam winners, their favouritism is entirely justified and nothing heard from either camp in this week’s build-up has suggested otherwise.

If nothing else has revealed itself in the past few days ahead of Saturday night’s win or go home pool showdown, it is that there are two types of confidence.

The first, which has exuded from the Ireland camp, and not just this week but over the last two years, is the sort of confidence that comes from within, a self-assurance that whatever obstacle should cross their path there is the wisdom and experience to find a way through it, over it or around it.

The second type is less intrinsic, more of a statement of intent to bolster belief, founded on bravado and hope rather than expectation. It is the sort of confidence that leads Scotland full-back Blair Kinghorn, in advance of his 50th cap, to declare of Ireland’s 16-Test winning streak: "They have been on a good run of form recently, but we'll end that on Saturday."

Now, Kinghorn is a fine player and is entitled to his opinion, but however well-founded his beliefs may be, compare them to Andy Farrell’s response to a question on dealing with his team’s status as favourites and the confidence it brings to them.

“No, no, no, it’s not about that because games are never like that,” the Ireland head coach said. “Games always have ebbs and flows, ups and downs, and it’s being able to deal with that.

“We don’t ever even talk about games that we’ve won or whatever. We just learn from the experience and take it one game at a time. That’s just the cold, hard fact.

“The only thing that’s on our minds, is how we are honest with each other to improve our own performances individually and collectively. We go hard at that and things tend to take care of themselves. We’ve got very good at just paying no attention really to outside noise or outside people that are trying to get in with whatever and just concentrating on ourselves.

“As far as our analysis is concerned, we always do our homework and pay full respect to everyone we play but we pay more respect to ourselves, I would have thought. We’ve learned that over the last couple of years more than anything. It’s just about being the best version of yourself and if you’re chasing that all the time, things tend to flow in the right direction as well.” 

Well, whose dressing room would you rather be in as kick-off approaches in Saint-Denis Saturday night? Of course Scotland have the capability to beat Ireland and end that excellent run of success but the question remains whether they have the smarts and adaptability to execute that victory. And not just that but build enough of a winning margin while denying the Irish any match points at the same time to keep them alive in this tournament.

Ireland have the emotional and rugby intelligence to do exactly what is required of them to advance to the last eight, land a ninth consecutive victory over their Six Nations rivals and stretch that winning run to 17 Tests, not least because they have shown those facets of their make-up time and again in the past 16 months alone. What is more, they have done it against Scotland in this year’s championship by beating Gregor Townsend’s men, Kinghorn and all, 22-7 at Murrayfield at the penultimate stage of their march to the Grand Slam.

For those in need of a reminder, that was the afternoon Ireland lost Caelan Doris, Dan Sheehan, and Iain Henderson to injury inside 24 minutes, before replacement hooker Ronan Kelleher followed starter Sheehan into the treatment room eight minutes after half-time with their side only marginally ahead at 8-7.

That Ireland, with flanker Josh van der Flier throwing lineouts and prop Cian Healy scrummaging in the middle of the front row, still pulled away on Scottish soil to a 15-point victory not only pointed to home inadequacies but Irish adaptability that will be essential to their World Cup ambitions this month.

“It’s a testament to the group that looking over the last three or four years we’ve ended up in loads of difficult situations and we’ve managed to have a few people playing out of position, or maybe a man down, or whatever happens,” van der Flier said when addressing the subject on Thursday.

“We’ve had a lot of adversity with people dropping out late and injured in warm-ups, that kind of thing, and the group has always managed to stay calm and not to panic and still come up with performances.” 

That calmness served Ireland well last time out also, when problem-solving on the hoof to fix a lineout that had come under extreme pressure from South Africa before the defending champions were finally overcome at Stade de France a fortnight ago.

With Henderson replacing James Ryan in the second row and Sheehan back at hooker with both Ryan and Kelleher moving onto the bench, Farrell has moved swiftly to focus minds ahead of the set-piece challenge ahead.

Always on their toes, ever ready to find a solution, Ireland’s only fear will be a disaster that cannot be fixed, be it a rash of injuries or a damaging red card. Little suggests anything else is capable of stopping them otherwise.

Ireland: H Keenan (Leinster); M Hansen (Connacht), G Ringrose (Leinster), B Aki (Connacht), J Lowe (Leinster); J Sexton (Leinster) - captain, J Gibson-Park (Leinster); A Porter (Leinster), D Sheehan (Leinster), T Furlong (Leinster); T Beirne (Munster), I Henderson (Ulster); P O'Mahony (Munster), J van der Flier (Leinster), C Doris (Leinster).

Replacements: R Kelleher (Leinster), D Kilcoyne (Munster), F Bealham (Connacht), J Ryan (Leinster), J Conan (Leinster), C Murray (Munster), J Crowley (Munster), S McCloskey (Ulster).

Scotland: B Kinghorn (Edinburgh); D Graham (Edinburgh), H Jones (Glasgow), S Tuipulotu (Glasgow), D van der Merwe (Edinburgh); F Russell (Bath), A Price (Glasgow); P Schoeman (Edinburgh), G Turner (Glasgow), Z Fagerson (Glasgow); R Gray (Glasgow), G Gilchrist (Edinburgh); J Ritchie (Edinburgh) - captain, R Darge (Glasgow), J Dempsey (Glasgow). 

Replacements: E Ashman (Edinburgh), R Sutherland (unattached), WP Nel (Edinburgh), S Cummings (Glasgow), M Fagerson (Glasgow), L Crosbie (Edinburgh), G Horne (Glasgow), O Smith (Glasgow). 

Referee: Nic Berry (Australia).