Scotland are well aware of recent poor record against Ireland

When the sides meet in Paris this Saturday it will be on the wave of eight successive wins for the green machine. The run began in 2018

BRAINS TRUST: Head coach Gregor Townsend with his staff during the Scotland captain's run. Pic: INPHO/Billy Stickland

John Barclay had an impressively crisp and concise grasp of what had just happened, and why, for a guy who was just emerging from an 80-minute shift in the pell-mell of a Six Nations game in front of over 50,000 people.

Scotland travelled to Dublin five years ago on the back of bravura wins against England and France. The Ireland team they were playing was on the way to a perfect calendar year that would include a Grand Slam and a defeat of the All Blacks, but no-one knew that then.

There was wind in both sets of sails.

Ireland duly rammed the Scottish ship, chucking all that momentum overboard in the process, and so it has been since. When the sides meet in Paris this Saturday it will be on the wave of eight successive wins for the green machine.

The run began that day in 2018.

“They had three chances on top of the intercept [try], and took all of them,” said Barclay, the Scotland captain, after the final whistle. “We had four chances, clean two-on-one chances, and took one of them. That's the difference today.” 

Sift through the evidence of their mutual history since the last Scottish win, in 2017, and you could make a case that Ireland have been guilty of numerous acts of piracy. The other side to that argument is that Scotland have simply never earned the right to win.

Gregor Townsend echoed Barclay’s words that same day, the memories of numerous opportunities already congealing in his mind after Peter Horne, Huw Jones, Sean Maitland, and Stuart Hogg all blew a variety of tempting openings.

A year later and the Scots’ difficulties were framed by the 25 phases they had on or near Ireland’s try line at one point without scoring. Try as they might, they still couldn’t seal the deal that day against a side that had lost Johnny Sexton after 24 minutes.

The most notorious case of Scottish profligacy came in 2020 when Stuart Hogg spilled the ball in the act of trying to touch down for a try, but that was only the headline act in a reel of ‘if only’ moments in what was Andy Farrell’s first game in charge.

Go back through the cuttings and time and again we see Townsend and his players lamenting their own inability to make the most of the chances they had excavated. It’s a large and damning sample size over a decent chunk of time.

In 2021 Hogg himself was lamenting the lack of a “clinical edge” after a late Johnny Sexton penalty separated the sides. And Townsend was still bemoaning scoring windows that they allowed to shut without reward after the game in Edinburgh earlier this year.

Scotland, to be fair, averaged four tries a game in their other four Six Nations games in 2023 – and that’s not a number bumped up by a cricket score against Italy – but Ireland held them to one. They have been kryptonite for them ever since that last win in 2017.

It’s not just the lack of a killer instinct that has hurt. Ireland, and others, have been able to land quick one-twos that have decided games in a matter of minutes. The most glaring was the World Cup meeting in 2019 when the score was 15-0 inside 15 minutes.

Teams simply can’t afford a slow ten or 15 minutes at this level. Townsend said they played some of their best rugby in 2020 for 35 minutes in a 31-16 loss in the Autumn Nations Cup. And he was praising a fantastic first 50 minutes in Murrayfield back in March.

It’s not good enough. What he hasn’t ever been able to do is luxuriate in a performance that hit a high gear for the length of time needed to get the job done. They have betrayed similar Jekyll and Hyde tendencies throughout his reign.

They were there in the World Cup warm-ups against France and Georgia, their performance dipped in the second-half against the Springboks in Marseille, and it has been a calling card even on days when they have troubled or beaten England and France.

“Playing with a level of accuracy and consistency to the final whistle is very important and that is always very difficult against the top teams but we believe in our team, that we are capable of doing that.” 

This was Townsend’s take only last Sunday after they swept past an abysmal Romanian team in Lille. It was only the fag end of an answer to a question that had asked why exactly Scotland had failed so often to find the right response against Ireland.

He responded with an empty laugh, then declared it to be a leading question before taking the room on a meandering journey through the last five years and eight losses, but the bottom line with Scotland in this fixture has been very simple up to now.

They just haven’t been good enough.

EIGHT DEFEATS TO EAT AWAY AT SCOTLAND 

2018: Ireland 28-8 Scotland, Aviva Stadium

Scotland arrived in Dublin buoyed by successive defeats of France and England but fell by four tries to one and were left ruing a number of missed opportunities and/or failures to execute. This would become a familiar theme.

2019: Scotland 13-22 Ireland, Murrayfield

Ireland had lost an opening Six Nations game to England that Joe Schmidt would ultimately say left his side ‘broken’ while Scotland had seen off Italy. Didn't matter. More chances were created and butchered on a day when the hosts lost Stuart Hogg early and the visitors Johnny Sexton.

2019: Ireland 27-3 Scotland, Yokohama International Stadium 

A bullish Scotland were swatted aside with ease by a team that was in the midst of a crisis of confidence. Ireland took a 15-0 lead within 15 minutes and had it all but wrapped up with a third try before the break. Maybe the worst of all the eight losses to date.

2020: Ireland 19-12 Scotland, Aviva Stadium 

A game played just before the covid curtain came down and one remembered for the fact that it was Andy Farrell’s first game in charge and for Stuart Hogg’s dropped ball over the try line. Finn Russell was in the dog house for disciplinary reasons and didn’t feature.

2020: Ireland 31-16 Scotland, Aviva Stadium 

The Autumn Nations Cup. Remember that? Scotland, as they have done in more than one of these fixtures, dominated for long periods but couldn’t earn their due reward and two quick Ireland tries after the break took the game away from them.

2021: Scotland 24-27 Ireland, Murrayfield 

So close yet so far away again. Scotland outscored Ireland three tries to two and reeled in a 24-10 deficit towards the end but fell foul of a late Johnny Sexton penalty. Cue more talk of frustration and the need to find a more clinical edge.

2022: Ireland 26-5 Scotland, Aviva Stadium 

A game played on the back of the controversy arising from six players breaking team curfew to drink in Edinburgh and a defeat that left Gregor Townsend’s hold on the job in real jeopardy. Scotland made seven visits to the Ireland 22 and scored only once.

2023: Scotland 7-22 Ireland, Murrayfield 

Same as it ever was. Wins over England and Wales and a gutsy loss in Paris had Scotland primed with talk of a rare Triple Crown, but they couldn’t capitalize on an Irish team handicapped by injuries and fell away after a strong first-half performance.