Ireland v Scotland permutations: Pool B on a knife edge ahead of Rugby World Cup showdown

Andy Farrell's side could do us all a favour and just beat Scotland on Saturday night.

FINAL GROUP GAMES: It all comes down to the final weekend of group games to see who reaches the quarter finals from Pool B.

In a World Cup pool stacked with three of rugby’s top five-ranked Test teams, it was always likely to come down to the wire and so it has passed, qualification for the quarter-finals in Paris rests on one last match.

With defending champions South Africa completing their pool schedule in Marseille on Sunday night by securing a bonus-point victory over Tonga at the Velodrome, the Springboks will top the standings on 15 points going into the final weekend.

That throws down the gauntlet to both Ireland, with 14 points from three matches, and Scotland on 10 points as they prepare for their showdown at Stade de France this Saturday night.

The pool is on a knife edge with all three teams facing the possibility of an early exit next weekend if results do not go their way but world number one-ranked Ireland begin this pivotal match week in command of their destiny.

Andy Farrell’s team will top Pool B with a victory or two points for a draw with Scots, who gave themselves a lifeline to reach the last eight on Saturday night with an expected bonus-point victory over Romania.

Final Pool B permutations at #RWC2023 with Ireland v Scotland the only match that impacts quarter-final qualification.

4-0 or 5-0 win for Scotland puts them through (with SA).
5-1 win for Scotland - it's complicated...

All other results put Ireland & South Africa through. pic.twitter.com/dqz8InuVZC

— Kevin Millar (@topofthemoonGW) October 1, 2023

Their 84-0 dismantling of the pool minnows also provided a morale booster ahead of the Ireland clash but they will also need to deny Farrell’s side a bonus point or risk tying the Irish on either 14 or 15 points. 

That would leave them level on match points, although recent history would not suggest the latter total as Ireland have not conceded the four tries that would give Scotland a try bonus point in 17 Test matches, when they last lost, to the All Blacks in their first Test at Eden Park almost 15 months ago.

Furthermore, all three teams finishing on 15 points would not help the Scots. With each of them having beaten one another in the pool, the head-to-head criteria is removed, meaning a decision on final places going to points difference, with Ireland on +122 compared to Scotland’s +97. Second place would, however, be decided on the head-to-head between the tied teams, so, if Ireland finish top of the pool on points difference, the Springboks will go through in second having beaten Scotland 18-3 on the opening weekend.

If South Africa lead the standings, Scotland would go through as they would have beaten Ireland while if Gregor Townsend’s team win the group on points difference, Ireland will go through in second as they beat South Africa.

And if there is a tie in points difference, it will be the team with the best difference between tries scored for and against.

Ireland could do us all a favour and just beat Scotland on Saturday night.